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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 132303
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| Posted: 11 September 2020 at 9:24am | IP Logged | 1
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I think we all forget one matter.Trump won the election. Clinton won the vote. •• Hardly "all". I've been pounding on this point since 2016.
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Michael Penn
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 April 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 12444
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| Posted: 11 September 2020 at 11:24am | IP Logged | 2
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If we start with the Electoral results in 2016, and give Biden both Pennsylvania and Michigan, but keep Wisconsin for Trump... Trump still wins.
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Rebecca Jansen
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 February 2018
Location: Canada
Posts: 4530
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| Posted: 11 September 2020 at 11:24am | IP Logged | 3
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Campaign funding from Russia laundered through Duetsche Bank... multiple campaign associates with ties to Russia and Russian interests... casts doubts on U.S. election process despite no evidence of wrongdoing targeting himself or the party he represents while countless instances of the opposite are recorded ... discredits British intelligence dossier on him, falsely blames Democrats for it existing... mocks people who served in the U.S. military and their family members... oligarchs otherwise banned from entering the U.S. at inauguration... continuing false claims of Democrats spying on him and being guilty of treason, the Karl Rove accuse your enemy more loudly of what you're actually doing mud slinging ploy... sharing of classified information directly with Russian agents in private meetings known only afterwards from Russian media reports... brags of regular private phone calls with Putin... goes crazy over interpreter being talked to.... obstruction of military aid to Ukraine... continually undermines confidence in a free and independent press... tries to stop investigations into ties with Russia and it's attempts to affect election outcome... works to divide European leaders, speaks against the EU... goes crazy over General Flynn admitting contact with Russians who then gets sudden plea and legal representation change... attacks and undermines NATO... sudden U.S. forces withdrawal from Syria... attacks the credibility of U.S. intelligence regularly... exposes U.S. populace to propaganda traced to Russian origin... U.S. forces withdrawing from Afghanistan... no comment on Russian breaches of nuclear reduction agreements... hollowing out of Voice Of America with no basis, a fanatical unqualified supporter dropped in to top position with mostly empty positions under him... business dealings with Russia traced back as far as the 1980s, undisclosed... exposes the U.S. population to entirely false information about coronovirus is spite of knowing the opposite to be true... openly admires criminal despots and dictators as strong and loved by their captive populaces... continues long standing Russian agenda of exacerbating U.S. racial tensions... casts doubt on U.S. election process again going further than the first time...
Owned and operated by and for Russia. Not provably working for God-fearing working class Americans who "work with their hands" in any way. Manufacturing plants promised to be saved close - tax cuts almost entirely for the very wealthiest... coal mining jobs dangled barely increase - stock market inflated to new levels benefiting the wealthiest... workers unions undermined - no sign after three years of new and better health care plan promised... government workers doing their job fired and demoted - positions taken go to unqualified cronies... postal service cuts - does nothing about pharmaceutical price gouging... claims cleanest air under gutted EPA while air quality measured as worsening - removes park land from being exploited for highly destructive resource extraction... denigrates and blames main long-standing trading partners on fictional or superficial basis - his tariffs negatively affecting U.S. businesses and construction...
Acting presidential.
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Peter Hicks
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 April 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 1891
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| Posted: 11 September 2020 at 12:01pm | IP Logged | 4
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"If we start with the Electoral results in 2016, and give Biden both Pennsylvania and Michigan, but keep Wisconsin for Trump... Trump still wins."
******************************************
Absolutely true. And there are some pundits who think Biden should confine all his campaigning and advertising to those three states.
But Trump is currently losing the polls in all those three states. Biden is up 4% on average (Realclearpolitics.com) in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and 6% in Wisconsin. Four years after those states barely voted for Trump by a COMBINED 70,000 votes, 10 million Americans have lost their jobs (half of them have been told their jobs are permanently gone) and 194,000 people are dead from COVID. Has Trump won over anybody who voted Democrat last time, or did not bother to vote for anybody in 2016?
Complications in other states to keep Trump awake that do not bother Biden:
Arizona - Trump won it in 2016. Biden is polling 5% points ahead. With the Senate seat up for grabs here, Democrats will campaign hard, up and down the ballot.
Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina - Trump won them all in 2016, and all three are polling within the margin of error. There is no path to the White House for a Republican without Florida AND Ohio.
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David Allen Perrin
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 15 April 2009
Location: United States
Posts: 3544
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| Posted: 12 September 2020 at 9:51am | IP Logged | 5
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Ohio continues to baffle and disappoint me. If it could drag itself down next to Alabama it would.
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Eric Sofer
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 January 2014
Location: United States
Posts: 4789
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| Posted: 12 September 2020 at 11:27am | IP Logged | 6
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David - you have no idea. I'm confused and I live here. How does anyone not love the Browns...? :D :D :D
I went to the* Ohio State University out of high school. It's right in the middle of Ohio, you know. Speaking of football, I expected the about 50-50 split of NFL fans between the Browns and Bengals (with a couple of weirdos who liked the Steelers... no accounting for taste!)
But I couldn't resolve that about half of the students (like myself) had what I think of as a regular middle-American accent - which, to my ear, sounds like no accent. And half the school sounded as if they'd come from Mississippi or Alabama. I didn't know Southern Ohio was THAT far south!
We're still split like that politically, I guess. I have to wonder if Indiana or Iowa have a split like that.
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Steven Myers
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 10 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 5625
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| Posted: 12 September 2020 at 11:49am | IP Logged | 7
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I like that Ohio is "purple". but it has been slipping more red every year. There's a big split between the urban and rural, plus lots of educated people moving away to find better opportunities.
We've had some rather moderate Republican governors, but as evidenced by the Far Right trying to impeach DeWine, the extremists are trying to take over the GOP.
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Michael Penn
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 April 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 12444
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| Posted: 12 September 2020 at 6:51pm | IP Logged | 8
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And then there could be this scenario...
Begin with Electoral results from 2016. Now, give to Biden Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, all three.
Even so, if Trump wins Nevada and New Hampshire, where he's only trailing within the margin of error, he still wins.
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Matt Reed
Byrne Robotics Security
Robotmod
Joined: 16 April 2004
Posts: 35734
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| Posted: 13 September 2020 at 2:48am | IP Logged | 9
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John Wickett wrote:
| I'd love to spend more time talking about comics, but at any given time it seems like the topics for the last day only have one or two threads about comics. After reading what people are posting about, comics just seam trivial, and I feel drained of my enthusiasm to discuss them- which is a bummer, because I have loved comics since I was 3 or 4 years old in the early 70s. |
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This was a great answer to a question that, admittedly, set you up to fail so I want to thank you. I appreciate your candor and applaud your restraint.
Welcome...four years late.
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8844
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| Posted: 13 September 2020 at 1:14pm | IP Logged | 10
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2016 vs 2020 polling and margins of error are completely different. Again, as I have constantly pointed out, Biden has been hitting 50% in a lot of states, a number Hilary never hit in battle states. The separation between the two candidates this year, for the most part, are outside of that margin of error. The most recent map based on polls has Biden winning 278 to 215 in the electoral college, with Florida and Michigan still up for grabs.
Still close, but it's better than how it looked for Hilary at this point.
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Rebecca Jansen
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 February 2018
Location: Canada
Posts: 4530
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| Posted: 14 September 2020 at 3:51pm | IP Logged | 11
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I guess I'll dare to say it... Biden calling Trump an arsonist, however metaphorically, rubs me the wrong way. Well, if one is against exaggerated hyperbole anyway.
There are more than enough real things about Trump to point to without any enhancement. There's Trump doing the fingers in the ears lalalala bit to not learn a thing about climate change, yet I'll bet you this arsonist comment he will repeat like that most refined of name-calling, the "basket of deplorables" comment in 2016. Like that wasn't proven to be quite true in Charlotte and other places since.
A minor but unforced error by Joe Biden, yet it's important that nobody should be above criticism. I'm sorry if I'm hated for making this point. The air here is smokey but I don't blame Trump especially, there have been deniers long before this and a media that gives equal airtime to the 1 scientist in 1,000 (and on the payroll of a big oil company) with 1 representative of the 999 others.
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Rodrigo castellanos
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 03 July 2012
Location: Uruguay
Posts: 1464
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| Posted: 14 September 2020 at 9:25pm | IP Logged | 12
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2016 vs 2020 polling and margins of error are completely different.
If the polling is "completely different" why do you keep comparing those numbers?
You really don't see the contradiction there?
Still close, but it's better than how it looked for Hilary at this point.
What does that even mean?
Better than Hillary looked in the polls? When every poll and every expert gave her the win undisputedly? When no one in the face of the earth believed Trump was going to win?
What's "better" than that??
I give up. Clearly this following of the polls is a sort of addiction thing that can't be helped by rational thought.
After Trump, Brexit and Bolsonaro in Brazil I said "hey, at least these pollsters have been outed as the hacks they are" but no such luck.
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