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A decent likelihood.  Others within his "inner circle" also have gotten it.  And just because they're testing negative right now, that doesn't mean they don't have it.

And since this morning....

Sen. Mike Lee of Utah (Trump supporter) has tested positive and he was with Trump, Amy Coney Barrett and.....

The President of Notre Dame University has tested positive.   He was with both Trump and that witch...errr....SC nominee Amy Coney Barrett recently.

GOP campaign chair Rona McDaniel of Michigan has tested positive.  She was with the Trump campaign recently.

And of course Hope Hicks had it before all did.  And SHE was exposing others including that witch....errr...WH mouthpiece Kayleigh McEnnany who HELD A PRESS CONFERENCE WITH REPORTERS WHILE SHE KNEW HOPE HICKS HAD TESTED POSITIVE!

SO...NO...NOPE...FUCK NO!    No sympathy!  This entire administration is not only corrupt and totally bereft of empathy, morals, basic human decency and tact, they are FANTASTICALLY FUCKING STUPID TO BOOT!

Trump isn't a mastermind.  He's a profoundly simple, stupid man who somehow has been able to bullshit his way through life due to money, a lot of enablers, and an odd kind of con-man charm. 

I don't see what the payoff for faking covid would be in his eyes.  He wants us to think he's an indestructible tough guy.  He wants respect and adoration, not sympathy.  Getting covid undermines that, and undermines his message that things are getting better and masks are not needed.  It makes him look foolish for having said those things in the past.  It is NOT the message he wants to project.

Getting covid also forces him off the campaign trail at a point when there's only a month left, a costly loss of time.  It forces him to quarantine after mocking Biden for "hiding in his basement."  I can't see how he'd think that is a good thing.  To the contrary, I think he's worried that he's going to look weak.

Scenarios like "he knows he's losing and wants to shake things up or delay things" are unlikely.  I don't believe he does know he's losing.  I think he disbelieves polling and is confident that he's going to win, because he is that arrogant and entitled.  I don't think he wants to skip futher debates because I think he believes he won the first debate.  He's a narcissist.  He lacks any insight into himself or his weaknesses.

I don't think he's forward-thinking enough to be planning an excuse for an election loss or trying to plan on getting pardoned by Pence.  He believes he's going to win and he believes he's untouchable, so he doesn't need contingency strategy like that.

The simplest explanation here is that he really has covid.  He's someone who takes no precautions so it's hardly surprising he'd get it. 

Matt Reed: "...There is no upside to it at all."

I'm not prepared to say it's a scam just yet, but the supposed upsides might be that he gets sympathy votes, and that he could claim to beat the virus while suggesting it wasn't so bad, after all.

As I noted previously, what's sad is that it is plausible Trump would make it up.