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Jason Czeskleba
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Posted: 06 January 2023 at 7:55pm | IP Logged | 1  

Well, in the latest vote McCarthy picked up 13 votes from his previous best of 201 (on Monday).  Which might seem impressive until you consider that this is essentially where he had expected to be on the first day of voting.  He's basically picked up the folks that he had not expected to vote against him in the first place, but made no inroads with the core "never Kevins."  And I don't see what his path forward is from here. There doesn't seem much left in the way of concessions he could make, aside from ridiculous things like offering committee chairs, something the moderate supporters would not tolerate.  His strategy now seems to be simply to exert pressure on the remaining holdouts.  But if he thinks people like Gaetz and Boebert are going to be bothered by having the spotlight of public pressure shone on them, he really has a fundamental misunderstanding of what motivates them.

 John Wickett wrote:
Democrats must also understand this. I think they are missing an opportunity by not already negotiating with McCarthy. 
Some moderate Democrats have expressed a willingness to negotiate, but from what I read McCarthy's camp has shown no interest in engaging with them so far.  So there's no opportunity there for Democrats to be missing.  McCarthy has used threats to work with Democrats but the hardliners know those are (at this point) idle threats, so they are not providing him with any leverage.  

 Kevin Brown wrote:
The Dems will never vote for McCarthy.
They would not need to vote for him.  A handful of Democrats voting "present" instead of Jeffries would lower McCarthy's threshhold for victory and remove his need to attract any remaining Republican holdouts.

As to the notion that there is zero benefit for Democrats in negotiating... there's going to be a Republican speaker one way or another, and it doesn't much matter who it is in terms of how it will affect the political situation for Democrats.  They can't prevent that.  But something is better than nothing, and extracting some concessions in terms of committee assignments, subpoena power, or even an agreement on the debt ceiling would be better than nothing.  But like I said above, that would only be possible if McCarthy was willing to negotiate with them, which at this point he apparently is not.



Edited by Jason Czeskleba on 06 January 2023 at 7:59pm
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Rebecca Jansen
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Posted: 06 January 2023 at 8:08pm | IP Logged | 2  

I've expected from the outset that the only path for McCarthy would require some present 'votes' and/or absences to lower the threshold for the number needed. That even a total debasement (is he possibly not there yet?) to the most extreme froot-loops probably would not get him there directly. Failure to de-power and in fact reward over and over has gotten him/them to that point.

13th vote shows six staunch froot-loops.
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Michael Roberts
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Posted: 06 January 2023 at 8:23pm | IP Logged | 3  


 QUOTE:
As to the notion that there is zero benefit for Democrats in negotiating... there's going to be a Republican speaker one way or another, and it doesn't much matter who it is in terms of how it will affect the political situation for Democrats.  They can't prevent that.  But something is better than nothing, and extracting some concessions in terms of committee assignments, subpoena power, or even an agreement on the debt ceiling would be better than nothing.  But like I said above, that would only be possible if McCarthy was willing to negotiate with them, which at this point he apparently is not.

Which is the exact point that I made? McCarthy isn't going to make those sort of those concessions, so there's zero benefit in the Democrats offering to help him. Any overtures need to come from McCarthy's camp.


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John Wickett
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Posted: 06 January 2023 at 8:54pm | IP Logged | 4  

"Some moderate Democrats have expressed a willingness to negotiate, but from what I read McCarthy's camp has shown no interest in engaging with them so far."

Agreed.  But as this drags out, there may be more interest.  Instead of just publicly expressing a willingness to negotiate, it would be smart for Dems to reach out to McCarthy with specific requests.  And maybe this is already happening behind the scenes.

"But something is better than nothing, and extracting some concessions in terms of committee assignments, subpoena power, or even an agreement on the debt ceiling would be better than nothing."

Precisely my point.  Subpoena power would be a tough pill for McCarthy to swallow, but I'm sure they could get some concessions on committees and the debt ceiling.  Maybe I'm not being cynical enough, but I think the opportunity exists, right up until the point when the far right caves...which I still believe they will.

The few remaining holdouts claim they are trying to change the way things work in DC.  If that is true, then they must also realize at some point that "something is better than nothing" and get in line.
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Rebecca Jansen
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Posted: 06 January 2023 at 9:01pm | IP Logged | 5  

Reports are that McCarthy is turning to Trump, again, to bring the holdouts in line for him. Greatness. To be achieved tonight, "believe him". Failure to hold to account, rewarding bad behavior, aiding fanatics = slip slide and away.

One sees something, others see... nothing. Nothing to see here, everything is in control, this is normal, a victory even, yay our team.

Edited by Rebecca Jansen on 06 January 2023 at 9:02pm
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Mark Waldman
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Posted: 06 January 2023 at 9:52pm | IP Logged | 6  

GOP very intelligent. On the anniversary of Trump's coup, they try to get his puppet in. Great way to "move on" from an ineffective leader and treason. This country has really slipped.
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 06 January 2023 at 10:57pm | IP Logged | 7  

Conceding anything to the hard right seems very dangerous.

The House of Representatives numbers 435, every one of them voted in to do the job of representing the US public in running government. A handful of people, six at present, are blocking this. These six out of 435 do not democratically represent what the public wants. To kowtow to them is to give them vastly disproportionate power with regard to everyone else in the House. 


Edited by Peter Martin on 06 January 2023 at 10:57pm
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James Woodcock
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Posted: 07 January 2023 at 5:32pm | IP Logged | 8  

Often the way with Kingmakers Peter.

People make deals with the devil that give them vastly disproportionate
power, just so they can get people over the line.

& people continue to allow it to happen.
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Rebecca Jansen
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Posted: 07 January 2023 at 5:59pm | IP Logged | 9  

That scene last night was obscene. If there are any moderate Republicans left they have all been pretty much invisible, and silent outside participating in the many self-congratulatory standing ovations. Slightly over four days to do what normally is a matter of a couple of hours! Strong! McCarthy praising Trump for his help... heee's baaaack. Jeeziz (or the ghosts of Baldwin and Eisenhower) help the U.S.A. over the next two years. Oh, and going to be even harder now to apply any shred or facade of justice to that orange fraud artist who rallied the violent attack upon the same house.

Wow indeed. I never imagined such craven and utterly bonkers weakness from half the lawmakers of the light of liberty. For what? For whom? How do people ever vote for this to have power in their land? At least that aren't extremely selfish wealthy characters with foreign villas and offshore accounts and pay zero to little in taxes yet still able to attend million dollar plate political fundraisers. So people are going to be in the streets if anyone tries to touch Trump with consequences? But not over 'fixing' the voting system state by state? Not for putting unqualified Qanon froot loops on the rules commitees and congressional summons ignoring ones heading investigations with subpeona power into 'name the law-abiding demonized enemy Democrat or ex-Republican of long standing here'?

Thanks for a place we can still post this kind of thought, it sure has become less possible evrywhere else in this age of communication. I'm reading a hundred year history of the BBC now and how Churchill in the mid 1920s wanted to control it absolutely (as opposed to just partly) during a widespread general strike. Reith, the top and founding BBC head, managed to fend him off and noted all the times and ways he had been forced to bend by barring the Labour leader (Ramsay MacDonald, later to be PM) and even the Archbishop from speaking where he felt they needed to be heard. Just that damaged the BBC's standing with the public for a long time, perhaps still to the present day. Has anyone else noticed CNN becoming more 'balanced' under new management? They give time to people who misuse it as a mere propaganda tool and I have to hit the mute button more and more as a Republican that isn't ex is granted equal time, mostly to utterly deny all reality in front of them and blame a Democrat or them libruls generally! CNN is at least more bent than it had been, I am tired of small warning signs turning into full on physical attacks that then get re-written and minimized. That violence last night in the congress would be top story in my paper or newscast... such things even make news when they are from Taiwan, but this is another new recent low in the U.S.

Warning Will Robinson, Danger Danger! One party wants the total destruction of the other as well as some of it's past members, and you need two parties minimum for a democracy. The situation is getting any better how? Trump is running to be their president again in two years and almost everyone said he could not win the first time. Last night may have been his biggest win since that. :^(
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John Byrne
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Posted: 07 January 2023 at 6:46pm | IP Logged | 10  

A sad day for integrity.
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 07 January 2023 at 6:51pm | IP Logged | 11  

How long till the House goes through this all over again?
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Rebecca Jansen
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Posted: 07 January 2023 at 6:59pm | IP Logged | 12  

I think I got most all of it out in one go. :^)

I guess people can still hope that despite recent near-total silence that there actually are a few Republicans left of sanity and moderation?

Expect the unexpected can run both ways?
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