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Steven Brake
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Posted: 04 November 2018 at 10:29am | IP Logged | 1 post reply

Brennan Voberol wrote:

Steven, in my view, Trump will win reelection in 2020 - no matter the midterm results. I don't see the Democrats having any issues aside from attacking Trump, and blaming the Russians.   
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and JB wrote:

Trump’s reelection is a certainty. Then worry about 2024, when he might seek an excuse to “suspend” the elections.
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Why is this? Are there no Democrats who can pose a credible challenge to Trump?

I saw on Twitter that Hillary hasn't ruled out a 2020 run, but, whenever this was posted, it was usually followed by overwhelmingly negative responses, and from people who usually identified themselves as Democrats! Why is she do disliked, even - particularly? - by Democrat voters?

Isn't Bernie Sanders still relatively popular in the U.S, particularly with younger and more left-leaning voters?
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Marc Baptiste
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Posted: 04 November 2018 at 10:48am | IP Logged | 2 post reply

Steven,

With the economy roaring along and the American people's propensity for re-electing their incumbent Presidents (Reagan, Clinton, Bush, Obama) - it's looking like a bright prospect for Trump in 2020 as of right now.

Marc
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Brian Wilson
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Posted: 04 November 2018 at 2:09pm | IP Logged | 3 post reply

My expectation is that the Democrats will regain control of the House but not the Senate.  Some time after the election, the economy will tank or other issues will arise from the accumulated fuckery of the current administration.  Then, the Republicans will have the perfect scapegoat in place to blame the newly elected Dems, which will lead to increased gains and consolidation of power in 2020.
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Kevin Brown
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Posted: 04 November 2018 at 7:05pm | IP Logged | 4 post reply

IF people get out and vote, the Dems can take the House and tighten things up in the Senate.  Also, quite a few states look to be going Dem in the gubernatorial races.
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Brian Floyd
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Posted: 04 November 2018 at 10:11pm | IP Logged | 5 post reply

Here I sort of like both candidates for Governor, but the Republican candidate loses my vote for one reason: He wants to give public funds to magnet and private schools. The public schools here don't get nearly enough funding as it is.


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John Byrne
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Posted: 05 November 2018 at 4:50am | IP Logged | 6 post reply

Trump’s reelection is a certainty. Then worry about 2024, when he might seek an excuse to “suspend” the elections.

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Why is this? Are there no Democrats who can pose a credible challenge to Trump?

•••

No.

And remember, in 2020 it will be just as in 2016. What will matter is WHERE the votes are cast, not how many or for whom.

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Michael Penn
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Posted: 05 November 2018 at 5:51am | IP Logged | 7 post reply

Very few states appear to be electorally in play. So, the Democrats need to passionately get behind one person and support her or him with a vigorous and massive ground game in these states. 

Who is that person? Don't know. Names are out there. But I don't know that any would inspire the kind of total Democratic unity needed to defeat Trump. I am reminded of the 1972 Democratic primaries, when Humphrey, McGovern, and Wallace were essentially in a three-way tie, each around four million votes, and Muskie  bringing up the rear with nearly two million votes too.

In any event, it's awfully tough to unseat a sitting President. Neither Trump's style nor substance will cause his voters to abandon him, no matter how much the opposition despises both. Some bad "thing" has to happen. No way to predict that.
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John Byrne
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Posted: 05 November 2018 at 6:03am | IP Logged | 8 post reply

Last night I caught a few minutes of Bill Maher's show, which I normally do not watch, and he referenced some study that claimed it was the "sunshine" candidates who got elected--the ones who preached happy days and a great America. This, he said, was the opposite of Trump, who was a "dark" candidate.

And there's everything wrong with the liberal Left in a nutshell: they view the world solely thru the lens of their own experience. They hate Trump, so Trump is "dark". But to his supporters/voters, Trump is a positive supernova. "Make America Great Again" is just what the rifle-toting cousin-humpers want to hear. White fear is rampant, and they want a strong President on their side to assure them the "wrong" people will not continue to gain power. ("For God's sake! Eight years of a n*gger in the White House! Enough is too much!")

On the East and West Coasts we like to think of ourselves as a smart, sophisticated country. We're not.

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Michael Penn
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Posted: 05 November 2018 at 6:53am | IP Logged | 9 post reply

When race plays such a key factor, it's just impossible to think of America as smart.
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John Byrne
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Posted: 05 November 2018 at 7:52am | IP Logged | 10 post reply

I've mentioned this before:

SHortly after Rump was elected, I watched a news show in which they interviewed some of his supporters, asking why they had voted for him. One couple, looking to be in their late forties, owners of a mom & pop hamburger restaurant in the South, said they liked his plan to cut taxes for Big Corporations. This, they said, would create money that would flow down to everyone else.

ARGH! I cried. That's Trickle Down, and you HATED it when Reagan did it!!!

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James Woodcock
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Posted: 05 November 2018 at 1:53pm | IP Logged | 11 post reply

Trickle down rears it’s head so often in the U.K. - & never, ever occurs.
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Jason Czeskleba
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Posted: 05 November 2018 at 8:06pm | IP Logged | 12 post reply

 Marc Baptiste wrote:
With the economy roaring along and the American people's propensity for re-electing their incumbent Presidents (Reagan, Clinton, Bush, Obama) - it's looking like a bright prospect for Trump in 2020 as of right now.


We have no idea what the economy will be like in two years.  Odds are, there will be a slowdown or recession, because the current recovery has been exceptionally lengthy.  Trump's approval rating is quite low for a President in a strong economy, and if there is a downturn he likely will be vulnerable in a re-election campaign.  Both Presidents who lost re-election bids in the last 50 years did so largely because of the economy.

Trump won in large part because the Democrats managed to field a candidate that was even less likeable and less-trusted than he was, someone who lacked the kind of charisma or emotional warmth that could make intelligence or two X chromosomes acceptable to voters.  That was a significant accomplishment.  I'm hoping they won't make that mistake again. 



Edited by Jason Czeskleba on 05 November 2018 at 8:08pm
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Vinny Valenti
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Posted: 05 November 2018 at 9:04pm | IP Logged | 13 post reply

Norm MacDonald joked that people hated Hillary Clinton so much that they instead voted for someone they hated even more.
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Charles Valderrama
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Posted: 05 November 2018 at 9:57pm | IP Logged | 14 post reply

Let's remember why we should resist Trump and his corrupt GOP:

Muslim Bans

Rolled back environmental protections

Remarks made after Charlottesville

Separating migrant children from parents

Called African nations "shithole countries"

Efforts to repeal ACA

35+ indictments tied to his campaign and/or administration

Attacking NFL players for kneeling

Nominating Kavanaugh

Puerto Rico

Giving millions to billionaires and himself while ballooning the deficit

Calling the Press "enemy of the people"

Lies, lies, and more lies. Finally... dividing our country in the past few years.

Tomorrow, we vote to (hopefully) change the course.

-C!
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Adam Schulman
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Posted: 05 November 2018 at 10:51pm | IP Logged | 15 post reply

I live in NYC and I haven't seen much evidence that people are so sure the Dems will even take the House, let alone the Senate.

It's more like this:

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Ed Aycock
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Posted: 06 November 2018 at 7:13am | IP Logged | 16 post reply

Exactly, Adam.  I know very, very few Dems who are feeling assured.  There's a lot of PTSD from 2016 showing up.  
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Charles Valderrama
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Posted: 06 November 2018 at 7:55am | IP Logged | 17 post reply

Love that skit, Adam.

Fingers are crossed.

-C!
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Michael Casselman
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Posted: 06 November 2018 at 7:57am | IP Logged | 18 post reply

Voted this morning here in Northern NYS around 7:30. In-and-out in under 5 minutes, even counting a little banter with the ladies running the polling place. 9 races to vote on which included 2 unopposed candidates (1 R, 1 D) For the other 7 races, I managed to put a tick across the board in the Reform Party, Independence, Working Families and Conservative lines, because I like to think I'm having an effect on line placement.

Polls are open here 6AM to 9PM... what are the hours elsewhere?
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John Byrne
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Posted: 06 November 2018 at 8:11am | IP Logged | 19 post reply

Recent studies have shown the temperature rise in the oceans is 60% higher than we thought. That's sixty percent on top of the rise that we thought was there.

This has severely shortened our timeline to "save" ourselves--a venture that was inherently impossible any way.

So sit back, relax, and watch the waters rise. Rump is the least of our problems.

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Michael Penn
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Posted: 06 November 2018 at 8:23am | IP Logged | 20 post reply

Norm MacDonald joked that people hated Hillary Clinton so much that they instead voted for someone they hated even more.

***

Anecdotally I found that to be quite true, irrational as it may seem.
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David Miller
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Posted: 06 November 2018 at 9:12am | IP Logged | 21 post reply

Jimmy Carter at least is grateful Hillary has replaced him as our nation's archetypal Democrat Failure Punchline. 
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Kevin Brown
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Posted: 06 November 2018 at 9:58am | IP Logged | 22 post reply

So far many states are reporting high turnouts.  This is good for the Dems.
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John Byrne
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Posted: 06 November 2018 at 12:22pm | IP Logged | 23 post reply

Is it? What if those are Republicans fearful of losing control of the House?
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Kevin Brown
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Posted: 06 November 2018 at 1:46pm | IP Logged | 24 post reply

Higher voter turn out always favors the Dems.
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Brennan Voboril
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Posted: 06 November 2018 at 2:32pm | IP Logged | 25 post reply

Kevin this election reminds me of the 2016 election predictions, especially the one in the New York Times, where the Times forecast that Hillary had an 85% chance of winning. 

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