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ron bailey
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Posted: 29 October 2024 at 10:40pm | IP Logged | 1 post reply

Yeah, it's important to remember the founding fathers didn't really want any Tom, Dick or Harry to have any power over them that would actually affect their lives, they just wanted independence from the British so they could do what they wanted. The electoral college is accomplishing exactly what it was designed to do. 
Sorry to say, but even if Harris wins, the fact that it has come as close as it has is a sad indictment as the current state of affairs. 
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Brian Miller
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Posted: 29 October 2024 at 10:41pm | IP Logged | 2 post reply

Extending any empathy towards Melania is more than my dwindling supply
of it can manage.
*****
Agreed
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Kevin Brown
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Posted: 30 October 2024 at 9:42am | IP Logged | 3 post reply

She made the choice.

************************

Ah yes, the things people do for a green card.
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Brad Wilders
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Posted: 30 October 2024 at 2:02pm | IP Logged | 4 post reply

Yeah, it's important to remember the founding fathers didn't really want any Tom, Dick or Harry to have any power over them that would actually affect their lives....

*******

It is always curious to me when anyone describe the "founders fathers" as though they were some monolith that all shared the same set of ideas and designs for the country. 

In truth, they strongly disagreed on a lot of stuff, including whether the president should be elected by popular vote of the citizens or chosen by Congress. The electoral college, and the decision to let states decide how to chose their electors, was a compromise between those factions.  (No country used a populate vote to elect their chief executive at the time; and the Founders also strongly disagreed on how much power the chief executive should wield).

Many of the arguments against using a popular vote have simply expired due to the passage of time and development. For example, a legitimate concern was the lack of access to information that rural citizens had the time. Another concern (obviously illegitimate!) was that the southern states favored using electors because it gave them a mechanism to obtain the votes of their slaves (through the 3/5 compromise) and preserve slavery.

I don't think it is accurate to say the electoral college works is "accomplishing exactly what it was designed to do." The largest problem with the system, in modern times, is that instead of allocating electors in proportion to the popular vote in each state, most states allocate all electors to the winner. This was not contemplated by the founders who didn't foresee the rise of political parties and believed each elector would cast his vote independently. If states allocated their electors proportional to the popular, the potential for a split between the popular vote and EC vote would be far less likely to occur (not impossible because each state receives 2 electors in addition to those allocated by population--which is why the Senate is actually far less representative than the EC).

In fact, the founders likely anticipated that most presidents would be chosen by the House of Representatives because there would be so many candidates for President none would receive a majority of the electors. 

Discussion of the history here
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Peter Hicks
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Posted: 03 November 2024 at 12:19am | IP Logged | 5 post reply

Harris now leading Trump by 3 points in Iowa.

IOWA!!

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-p oll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-20 24-presidential-race/75354033007/

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David Miller
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Posted: 03 November 2024 at 2:11am | IP Logged | 6 post reply

I'm not informed enough to be amazed but the immediate reaction to the Iowa poll on data nerd twitter was hilarious.

 QUOTE:
The fuck?


 QUOTE:
likely an outlier but at least we know selzer's not herding lmao


 QUOTE:
Holy fuck!!


 QUOTE:
OMG!!!!


 QUOTE:
rigged


 QUOTE:
Is this real?

And so on.
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Matt Reed
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Posted: 03 November 2024 at 3:49am | IP Logged | 7 post reply

I’ve thought it for awhile but haven’t dared to utter it: I think it’ll be a landslide for Kamala.  Electoral and popular. 

I know.  The doom and gloomers have said it’ll be close, that we’ll be lucky to eke it out, that everything points to Trump (whereas I’ve seen the opposite).  That’s all Republican op fueled and funded polls meant to poison the well.  

I’m not saying that this will end on Tuesday as we know Trump will challenge this contest into the dust, but I think it’s a forgone conclusion.  Call me overly optimistic.  Call me stupid and partisan and deluded.  Whatever.  Bring it.  
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David Miller
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Posted: 03 November 2024 at 4:48am | IP Logged | 8 post reply

I think you're right.

My official pregnostication is that Harris will convincingly win the popular vote 52% to Trump's 46%, and barely win the racist and antidemocratic electoral college with victories in PA, MI and WI and 270 electoral votes.

It's conservative because I don't want to let myself get too optimistic and jinx the election, but of course I'm kidding myself if I think drawing on my useless Washington State University political science degree has the power to jinx anything.

A while ago I predicted to a colleague that a Harris victory depended on her reception by aging racists who hate Black woman, such as a specific aging racist of our acquaintance. Well, that specific aging racist loves Kamala Harris and voted for her today.
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Brian Miller
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Posted: 03 November 2024 at 11:54am | IP Logged | 9 post reply

Go specific aging racist!
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Kevin Brown
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Posted: 03 November 2024 at 1:15pm | IP Logged | 10 post reply

I'm with you, Matt.  

The vast majority of these polls are being presents by Conservative news sources.  They want it sounding close to keep their cult leader in it.  He's not in it.  Plus it helps those swing states to keep getting money from both parties by saying it's close.

One thing that has been holding true for many years:  The higher the turnout of voters, the better it is for the Democrats.  And it's been record breaking this year.

In the end, I think she comes close to matching with Biden had with the popular vote and a bit short of his total, but still a resounding win.
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John Byrne
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Posted: 03 November 2024 at 1:21pm | IP Logged | 11 post reply

Call me overly optimistic. Call me stupid and partisan and deluded. Whatever. Bring it.

•••

2016

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Jose Zulueta
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Posted: 03 November 2024 at 2:47pm | IP Logged | 12 post reply

2016


***

Gahh--!
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