Strangely, I've heard of NO Democrat that would successfully replace Biden at this stage of the election.

The reason I'm a Democrat is that I feel in general the party exists most closely to the reality we inhabit, while favoring policies that will make a more equitable and sustainable future for all.  The reason I favor mainstream Democratic candidates is because while I prefer the majority of progressive policies, I also think that evolutionary change is preferable and more lasting than revolutionary change (with the exception of climate policies, which are decades overdue and really do need to be the legislative equivalent of a Manhattan Project to tackle).

So this is the reality: Trump needs to be taken seriously as a literal extinction level event. All legal paths to blocking him from office have not only failed, but have only added to his terrible allure. These are literally desperate times.

Mark, here's a good analysis of fivethirtyeight's prediction model.  It notes that fivethirtyeight's model appears to be placing too much weight on the "fundamentals" (a growing economy, incumbency, decreasing inflation, low unemployment) and not enough weight on the polls themselves.  For whatever reason, Biden's solid fundamentals have not translated into a higher approval rating for him or a rise in the polls, and therefore they are much less likely to have predictive value than they have in elections past. 

Fivethirtyeight is the best-known poll aggregator/prediction model, but at this point it appears to be an outlier in its bullishness for Biden.  It's notable that Nate Silver is no longer affiliated with the website, and his own prediction model is apparently substantially less optimistic about Biden's chances (it's paywalled, so I do not know exactly what he's predicting).  

My feelings haven't changed much since a few pages ago (keeping Biden may not be a great option, but he's still the best option), but even if I'm willing to concede that I was wrong and it really would be better for Biden to withdraw, I think Biden's doing them a favor by refusing to drop out right now because the "droppers" still haven't settled on what happens next.  Ditching Plan A without having Plan B fully thought out and ready to go is a recipe for disaster.

Actually, he did.  He owned the IP underlying the model and took it with him we he separated from 538.  The current model was built by someone else. As noted, Silver is running his model, which shows very different results in the matchup--more like 70/30 Trump.

Allan Lichtman seems more qualified in this discussion.

When these f'n Dems said they endorsed and fully supported Biden 100%...we didn't know they had an "unless...." attached to that "commitment."

-C!