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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 133317
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 5:39pm | IP Logged | 1
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This time the media is really on board with helping a convicted felon, deranged, unethical, vengeance-obsessed wannabe dictator ex-President instead of urging HIM too step aside. The media is embracing fascism.••• That is a grotesque oversimplification.
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ron bailey
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 October 2016
Location: United States
Posts: 1036
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 5:50pm | IP Logged | 2
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Nobody is worried about the vote of those who have already decided switching to the other side, they are baked in. The concern is that, in those few states where the election is going to be decided, those voters who are hardly ever engaged are going to use God knows what as criteria for making a choice. And given that, we are wringing our hands that they might just say, "that guy looks/acts too old, he might not make it through a full term, I'm going with the other guy". Remember, there was already the steep hill to climb in explaining away inflation, they didn't need another impulse-driven reason for those to make that decision.
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Mark Haslett
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 19 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 6426
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 7:18pm | IP Logged | 3
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“The polls were wrong” is almost never true. It’s true that the margin of
error makes it easy to misrepresent what the data is, but Biden and Trump
were never this far behind in the swing states when they won. Biden is and
the further data on what swing voters think about him makes it utterly
mystifying that anyone thinks they are gettable for Biden.
Right now, we know he’s losing.
But we absolutely will not have him step aside because…
The polls are wrong and the more he’s losing, the more sure we are the
polls are wrong and he’s gonna win!
Changing candidates would be exciting and innovative which will take
attention away from Trump and that is “bad” because… seeing Trump
everywhere is the plan to make Biden overcome his polling deficits or
something.
Besides, Humphrey list in ‘68 (barely) and Trump won in ‘16– so we should
definitely stick with our wounded and faltering candidate because no matter
what voters think, he’s a great guy and the polls don’t matter and he’s going
to win!
This is magical thinking. Biden’s path to victory is a miracle. That is not a
plan.
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Michael Casselman
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 14 January 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 1246
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 7:21pm | IP Logged | 4
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Clooney. Major fundraiser, had Obama's ear when it came to policy.Stephanopoulos. An interview safe-space in the media, friend to the Clintons.
Now... Pelosi. PELOSI.
This is quickly turning from subtle hedging-of-bets to "Caesar taking a mid-March stroll" political strategizing. I wonder if there's some sort of internal-polling going on that's showing a cataclysmic, unexpected flip of an otherwise solid Blue State, because if there were three people that you wouldn't normally think of as bailing on their candidate this late in the game, it's those three. Certainly not all in the same day.
You can argue all you want about how we got here, and how bad the alternative on the other side is, but the Blue Team most definitely has a problem in-house that can't be ignored.
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Matt Hawes
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 16499
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 8:07pm | IP Logged | 5
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Allan Lichtman on his predictions and on the arguments made about it and Biden's chances by Cenk Uygur of The Young Turks:
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Mark Haslett
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 19 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 6426
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 8:37pm | IP Logged | 6
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I concede that is very compelling stuff, Matt (and -added bonus- I love
seeing people dunk on the “Young Turks”).
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Casey Sager
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 732
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 8:44pm | IP Logged | 7
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You can dislike Cenk and dispute his opinions, but you can't dispute the numbers he cites.
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Charles Valderrama
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4830
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 9:57pm | IP Logged | 8
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Sure, Allan Lichtman predicted the results of nine of the 10 most recent presidential elections... but let's not dispute the numbers Cenk cites!
-C!
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Casey Sager
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 732
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 10:18pm | IP Logged | 9
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You mean polling numbers and approval rating? The numbers that anyone can find via a google search?
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Wilson Mui
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4552
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 10:29pm | IP Logged | 10
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Lichtman makes a good point about polls being
unreliable. During the Republican primary,
Nikki Haley performed better than the polls
predicted against Trump especially in the
early States.
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Matt Hawes
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 16499
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 10:41pm | IP Logged | 11
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Casey: "...You can dislike Cenk and dispute his opinions, but you can't dispute the numbers he cites..."
Professor Lichtman did precisely that in the video. Cenk cited that no Presidential candidate polling less than 40% won an election, then Lichtman points out Truman won.
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Mark Haslett
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 19 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 6426
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| Posted: 10 July 2024 at 10:50pm | IP Logged | 12
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He didn’t say they were unreliable.
He said they aren’t PREDICTIVE. They speak for the moment they are taken.
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