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Dave Kopperman
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Posted: 19 September 2024 at 1:19pm | IP Logged | 1 post reply

I was thinking about why the primary process exists as it does, beyond the often-suggested pressure from the media cycle.  I'm wondering if it also allows for a greater grass roots energy from the party members at the state, county, and district level?  That energy is a real key factor in getting out the vote and can make a major difference on Election Day, as long as the Electoral College is still a thing.
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Casey Sager
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Posted: 19 September 2024 at 4:32pm | IP Logged | 2 post reply

As messed up as US elections are, I would still prefer voting for a candidate in a primary than voting for a party and then if the party wins they appoint the person to be in charge.
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John Byrne
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Posted: 19 September 2024 at 5:49pm | IP Logged | 3 post reply

Except in unusual circumstances, the head of the party would already be in place, so you’d know who would be the next president/prime minister if that party won.
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John Byrne
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Posted: 19 September 2024 at 7:15pm | IP Logged | 4 post reply

Trump now wants the government to shut down. Pundits say that would “bounce back” and damage the GOP.

They really don’t understand what country we’re in.

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Dave Kopperman
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Posted: 19 September 2024 at 8:04pm | IP Logged | 5 post reply

Apparently that's an historic pattern. Since the GOP brand is 'smaller government' and since the big shutdown in the 90's, whenever a shutdown happens - as it did during the Trump presidency, when the Democrats held the House (I think?), Trump still took the polling hit. 
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Michael Penn
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Posted: 19 September 2024 at 8:05pm | IP Logged | 6 post reply


 QUOTE:
January 23, 2016: With less than two weeks to go until the Iowa caucus, Donald Trump remains characteristically confident about his chances. In fact, the Republican front-runner is so confident, he says his supporters would stay loyal even if he happened to commit a capital offense. "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK?" Trump remarked at a campaign stop at Dordt College in Sioux Center, Iowa. "It's, like, incredible."

Like, yeah. It certainly f#cking well is. Was eight years ago. Still is today.
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Mark Haslett
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Posted: 19 September 2024 at 10:10pm | IP Logged | 7 post reply

“The Cult of Trump” is a book written by Steven Hassan, a psychologist
and former “Mooney” who very seriously believes that the best way to
understand Trump’s base is through the lens of how cults work.

I’ve heard him speak many times about it since Trump’s first election and
his case has only become more convincing over time.
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Peter Hicks
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Posted: 20 September 2024 at 12:06am | IP Logged | 8 post reply

It amuses me that when there is a US Government shutdown, there is always a bipartisan carve out to keep members of the military paid.  What if the Democrats tied something else they wanted to continue funding in order to fund the military?
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David Miller
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Posted: 20 September 2024 at 2:32am | IP Logged | 9 post reply

I don't remember many details of the Reagan era shutdown battles, but every shutdown since has been driven by Republicans, who were rightly blamed by the public and suffered losses in the following elections every time except 2013, when the GOP pulled the stunt in a non-election year, either from rare lack of self-destructiveness, or just as likely by happenstance.

Shutdowns don't pay off in votes or popularity, or more than minimal legislative compromise. The point seems to be achieving a big public knuckledragger win by disrupting government however momentarily, while turning their sacred responsibility for the freedom and welfare of 345 million Americans into a performative clown show of willful waste and malfunction that fulfills in bad faith every Republican complaints about waste and incompetence.
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Steven Queen
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Posted: 20 September 2024 at 2:55pm | IP Logged | 10 post reply

The $34 trillion dollar debt, which is increasing by $1T every 100 days, has the potential to wipe out the nation -- in fact, it's usually overspending that sinks governments through history.  Servicing the debt will shortly exceed the military spending.  The fed has continued to spend at COVID "emergency" levels since 2020.

A CR completely ignores this problem.  Even a 0.5% cut across all government agencies would be something.

The traditional way a government deals with debt is by burning it out with high inflation (essentially making it's debt less).   That also means higher interest rates on bonds or no one will buy the debt.  

The dollar is also the world's reserve currency which complicates all the traditional economic theories with regards to debt and prompted VP Dick Chaney to say "Reagan proved US debt doesn't matter."  Politicians today continue to believe that lie. (I heard Biden repeat it.)  Stagflation and high interest rates from the Fed in the 1970s were associated with many of the similar problems that we face today.  Our domestic overspending and weaponization of the dollar (e.g. Russia) is starting to (once again) unsettle the rest of the world as it did leading up to Nixon leaving the gold standard in 1972.  Having kicked the can for decades, are now left with very little wiggle room.

In many ways, we never recovered from the recession of 2008 despite all the Quantitative Easing trickery (invented by Japan!).

With regard to Harris, I have yet to hear a single thing from her to-date that made me think she is smart.  And by "smart" I mean makes me pause for a second and say "whoa, I didn't realize that" or "I know she understands the critical issues".  So far it's been all feel-good platitudes, identity politics, and vibes.  I don't give a hoot for "vibes" and value merit over identity.   Ultimately, her lack on mental clarity doesn't matter---clearly someone(s) else is running the government now and will be for her admin too.  I find the latter most disturbing because I personally fear rule by a bureaucratic elite more than anything else.  In 1776, that elite was called the British monarchy and aristocracy.  Today, "they" wisely don't have a public name but Eisenhower's warning resonates.


Edited by Steven Queen on 20 September 2024 at 3:42pm
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 20 September 2024 at 3:43pm | IP Logged | 11 post reply

Debt has ballooned, this is a fact. US debt was 80% of US GDP in late 2009 and is now 121% of GDP. Running debt above 100% of GDP is not prudent, but this has eased from the 133% of GDP seen in 2020 and if you can service the debt, you can service the debt.

Compare it to someone with a mortgage on their house. National debt is akin to the mortgage. GDP is akin to your annual salary. Having a mortgage that exceeds your annual salary is not problematic. Constantly borrowing more as a % of your salary, even as your salary grows is not wise in the long run, of course.

I think most metrics do not agree we have never recovered from the recession of 2008 though.

For example, the level of the stock market and the size of GDP. Both have grown at stunning rates over the last 15 years. Also there is the availability of credit over that time versus the drying up of credit during the financial crisis. If anything, the situation has more of the hallmarks of the later sovereign debt crisis than the specifics of the financial crisis and the credit crunch, which were all about toxic assets and a lack of confidence in the institutions borrowing in the money market.
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Steven Queen
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Posted: 20 September 2024 at 4:33pm | IP Logged | 12 post reply

I don't disagree on most of that, but consider real inflation as one cause for the stock market run since COVID (i.e. the wealthy put money into real assets).  That inflation was driven by fed spending.

QE has created a credit bubble.  Two predicts: 1) credit bubble bursts in the next year and markets plunge 2) we are already in a recession and it will be acknowledged after the election..

I don't think we can service the debt for much longer if we stay on the current trajectory.  Time to shrink government spending.


Edited by Steven Queen on 20 September 2024 at 5:04pm
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