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Stephen Robinson Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 16 April 2004 Location: United States Posts: 5833
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| Posted: 26 April 2008 at 1:32pm | IP Logged | 1
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Didn't happen when Bush won even though he had fewer votes from the people and wouldn't happen here.
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SER: There are some critical differences here. For one, Democrats were furious about Bush's win in 2000 and it heightened the red/blue divide. If this were to happen within an actual political party (the Democrats), the impact could be devastating. Even if just half of Obama's or Clinton's supporters are so infuriated by the results that they either defect or stay at home, the results from the top of the ticket down will be brutal.
Also, more importantly, Bush had won the presidency in 2000 after the Florida decision. It would be about 4 years before he could really be held accountable for it -- one could argue that people would "cool down." If voters believe their candidate was robbed, then you've got all of 2 months to convince them otherwise. Not good. I mean, even now, it's been Obama vs. Clinton for far longer than it will be Obama or Clinton vs. McCain.
I don't say this as an Obama fan. Practically, I think the superdelegates will make a call based on either the outcome of the races in their state (a very justifiable move) or based on the overall outcome -- one that has Obama slightly ahead. They don't want a top-down defection. Keep in mind that if Obama or Clinton's supporters stay home in November that will also impact Congressional and Gubenatorial races.This has he potential to blow up huge for the Democrats. And frankly no matter what they do, the Republicans will make hay of it for a long while.
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Wayde Murray Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 14 October 2005 Location: Canada Posts: 3115
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| Posted: 26 April 2008 at 3:16pm | IP Logged | 2
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Out of curiosity, does anyone here believe that if she loses the nomination Clinton will then run as an Independant in order to act as spoiler? The subsequent split would almost guarantee a Republican victory this year, and allow her to run again in 2012 as the Democratic candidate (if the party would have her), or as an Indepandant (if the party would not). Would attempting such a move now require a high-profile Democrat to "defect" to join her on the ticket to give her run more credibility, or is her name sufficient to carry the ticket without assistance?
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David Ferguson Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 17 March 2007 Location: Ireland Posts: 6782
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| Posted: 26 April 2008 at 3:25pm | IP Logged | 3
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Happened before in the 1924 Republican nomination process. The independant only one his home state. The Republicans (Coolidge) still won.
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Al Cook Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 21 December 2004 Posts: 12734
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| Posted: 26 April 2008 at 3:34pm | IP Logged | 4
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As much as I question her motives*, I don't believe that Hilary is that
self-serving, Wayde.
* Ultimately, I believe that Hilary is in this, and staying in this at this
point, because she wants to be the first female President of the United
States.
I believe that Obama is in this because he wants to affect positive change,
wich he sees a strong need for, in the nation that he cares deeply about.
Edited by Al Cook on 26 April 2008 at 3:34pm
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Christopher Alan Miller Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 26 October 2006 Location: United States Posts: 2787
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| Posted: 26 April 2008 at 5:37pm | IP Logged | 5
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Happened before in the 1924 Republican nomination process. The independant only one his home state. The Republicans (Coolidge) still won.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It happened in 1912. Teddy Roosevelt lost the nomination to the incumbent William Howard Taft and formed his own party. Roosevelt finished second and Taft third with 8 electoral votes
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David Ferguson Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 17 March 2007 Location: Ireland Posts: 6782
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| Posted: 26 April 2008 at 5:49pm | IP Logged | 6
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Those two cases aside, I don't think Hillary is going to be starting her own party.
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Steve Bailey Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 30 January 2005 Location: United States Posts: 98
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| Posted: 26 April 2008 at 9:52pm | IP Logged | 7
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Anyone catch the Bill Moyers interview of Jeremiah Wright? Was wondering how the Obama supporters in this thread interpret the answer Wright gives here.
BILL MOYERS: Here is a man who came to see you 20 years ago
wanting to know about the neighborhood. Barack Obama was a skeptic when
it came to religion. He sought you out because he knew you knew about
the community. You led him to the faith. You performed his wedding
ceremony. You baptized his two children. You were, for 20 years, his
spiritual counselor. He has said that. And, yet, he, in that speech at
Philadelphia, had to say some hard things about you. How, how did it go
down with you when you heard Barack Obama say those things? REVEREND WRIGHT: It went down very simply. He's a
politician, I'm a pastor. We speak to two different audiences. And he
says what he has to say as a politician. I say what I have to say as a
pastor. Those are two different worlds. I do what I do. He does what
politicians do. So that what happened in Philadelphia where he had to
respond to the sound bytes, he responded as a politician. But he did
not disown me because I'm a pastor.
Just curious. Added link to transcript
http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04252008/transcript1.html
Edited by Steve Bailey on 26 April 2008 at 9:55pm
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Mike O'Brien Byrne Robotics Member
Official JB Historian
Joined: 18 April 2004 Location: United States Posts: 10927
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| Posted: 26 April 2008 at 11:09pm | IP Logged | 8
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Speaking as an Obama supporter, who cares what Wright says? He's not running for President.
It's funny that people go out of their way to say that Wright is a nut, but when he says something about Obama, suddenly he's a wise man with insight.
Say what you want about McCain, but I love that he's trying to avoid this sort of Clintonian "Gotcha!" politics! Can you imagine the type of race we'll have between McCain and Obama? It's going to be a thing of beauty...
Oh, and just to stir up the converstaion - so... I've followed Obama's record pretty closely - his years in the Ill legislature and the US Senate, I've read both his book, listened to his speaches... I'm curious... I keep hearing about how he's a socialist... ("at best" one right wing radio host said today) - but I see nothing in his voting record, speaches or writing that reflect this - (nor the influence of Wright or Ayers) - now, obviously I'm a brainwashed pinko commie, so, I wonder if one of you with better research abilities can find some evidence of this for me - I don't mean anticdotal evidence, nor something heard on the radio, read on a blog or seen on a talk show - I mean actual voting records, or his own words.
Just curious, because my own research shows otherwise, and I want to be on the same page as the rest of you guys.
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Joe Zhang Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 16 April 2004 Location: United States Posts: 12842
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| Posted: 27 April 2008 at 12:53am | IP Logged | 9
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Using Wright, they're trying to imply that behind Obama's irrepressibly positive image there's an Angry Black Man who wants to wreak vengeance on us all. There are indeed many angry Black people, just as there are many angry Whites, Browns, Yellows, etc, etc, all with very good and important reasons. Obama has just as much right as anyone else to be angry at government policies that lead to mass suffering and misery.
The underlying message of the Clinton campaign and her newfound friends in the Hard Right is that a candidate cannot be angry at government if he is Black. Which is clearly a racist message.
Edited by Joe Zhang on 27 April 2008 at 12:54am
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Mike O'Brien Byrne Robotics Member
Official JB Historian
Joined: 18 April 2004 Location: United States Posts: 10927
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| Posted: 27 April 2008 at 2:11am | IP Logged | 10
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You make good points, Joe - but to clarify - Obama's not even that mad - Pastor Wright is, and Obama has expressed that he understands where these feelings come from, but... you know... it's this horrid guilt by association thing, which, as you note, is being played in a disturbingly racist way here, and as I noted earlier, I can't seem to find anything in Obama's record that shows that he evers acts on these sort of things...
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Knut Robert Knutsen Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 22 September 2006 Posts: 7369
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| Posted: 27 April 2008 at 3:10am | IP Logged | 11
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All this blather about Clinton and/or Obama being socialist? What kind of idiots are the guys who make that claim?
As I've said, I'm a socialist (social democrat) and don't see anything wrong with that, but they don't fit the bill.
As far as I can tell they don't favor nationalising industry. Or nationalising healthcare (basically cutting out the insurance companies as middle-men and nationalising hospitals) They don't favor nationalising Universities and higher education so that all admissions are meritocratic, not hereditary or facilitated by economics. Nor are they as strongly in favor of unions and labor-friendly legislation as you'd expect from a socialist.
They are at best social-liberals. A liberal in this context being someone who favors getting government out of people's personal lives and to some extent out of business. A social-liberal wants government out of people's personal lives, but also recognizes the value of government in securing the freedoms of people (partly by ensuring that business, corporate or otherwise organized interests don't take it upon themselves to wield similar powers to those of big government.)
I think accuracy is important in these political discussions. And for better or worse socialist has become a pejorative in the US.
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Al Cook Byrne Robotics Member

Joined: 21 December 2004 Posts: 12734
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| Posted: 27 April 2008 at 8:19am | IP Logged | 12
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I'm still trying to figure out just what was so bad about Wright's oft-quoted
"God-damn America" speech. I got exactly what he was trying to say there,
and I agreed with him.
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