| Posted: 23 April 2008 at 4:08pm | IP Logged | 3
|
|
|
How does Obama have an insurmountable lead?
I didn't say he DID, but that he almost does. Mathematically, even if Hillary were to carry the remaining states (none of which are winner take all), she still wouldn't get enough delegates to PASS Obama, much less win the nomination. Right now, Hillary is counting on the Superdelegate vote to get her the nod.
*****************
SER: Clinton can't win. Even after Ohio and Texas, she lost Wyoming and Miss. (by larger margins than she won in Pennsylvania). The reality is that for the most part, this race is irrevocably fractured -- the winner of a state is going to be based on the demographics of that state. Clinton cleverly made a case that the "important" states (even though she's won half as many as Obama) are the ones that are demographically favorable to her. Although, the counter has been that if she claims that the states Obama has won would never be carried by a Democrat in the general election, it's safe to say that *I* could run against McCain in New York and California and still manage to carry the state.
And her agument is based on the 50 plus 1 strategy that carried Gore and Kerry to victory... oh wait, no, that didn't happen. Sure, if Gore had won Florida or if Kerry had won Ohio, but it doesn't have to play out that way. There are several purple states that could swing to Obama and that would give him the presidency.
Anyway, North Carolina will easily go to Obama because of demographics. Indiana is a toss-up but will lean toward Obama.
I doubt the DNC will give the nomination to the person behind in the popular vote and who won less states based on her assertion that she is more electable. If you're more "electable," then you wouldn't be behind in every possible way.
|