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Michael Roberts
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 3:55pm | IP Logged | 1  

This may be of interest to some. State by state polls showing how Clinton and Obama do against McCain

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While the Obama/Clinton battle is going on, I'll take those polls with a grain of salt. Whatever people are saying now, things will change once faced with a very real choice of McCain vs the eventual Democratic candidate.
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Stephen Robinson
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 4:00pm | IP Logged | 2  

That women have faced a "glass ceiling" in the workplace is incontrovertible.  That sexism is pervasive is also, I submit, incontrovertible.  But I also submit Hillary Clinton has had more access and inclusion to the American Dream than any Black American, including Barak Obama.  At no point in her life has Mrs. Clinton been stopped on the highway because she is a woman in nice car.  When she has walked into a store it is uncommon for the shopkeeper to follow her around because he or she fears Mrs. Clinton will steal from him.  These are daily events that happen to black americans (of both genders).  The inequities that she has faced, while very real, are not the same as those faced by blacks in America.

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SER: The irony for me is that Clinton is seeking to break the political glass ceiling and become president; however, her claim of "experience" is tied to the eight years she spent in the White House. There has never been a black first lady and it wasn't until -- sad to say -- the current adminstration that blacks had true mover-shaker authority in the White House (Secretary of State and National Security Adviser).

I've been watching JOHN ADAMS on HBO and your quote above reminded me of the scene in which Mr. and Mrs. Adams walk into the new White House, which is being constructed by half-fed slaves. Frankly, if you were to travel back in time to that moment and say to Mr. Adams that someone like his wife might lead the country, he would shrug and possibly conceive of it, but if you were to point to the slave digging a ditch, he would think you mad.

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Stephen Robinson
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 4:08pm | IP Logged | 3  

How does Obama have an insurmountable lead?

I didn't say he DID, but that he almost does.  Mathematically, even if Hillary were to carry the remaining states (none of which are winner take all), she still wouldn't get enough delegates to PASS Obama, much less win the nomination.  Right now, Hillary is counting on the Superdelegate vote to get her the nod.

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SER: Clinton can't win. Even after Ohio and Texas, she lost Wyoming and Miss. (by larger margins than she won in Pennsylvania). The reality is that for the most part, this race is irrevocably fractured -- the winner of a state is going to be based on the demographics of that state. Clinton cleverly made a case that the "important" states (even though she's won half as many as Obama) are the ones that are demographically favorable to her. Although, the counter has been that if she claims that the states Obama has won would never be carried by a Democrat in the general election, it's safe to say that *I* could run against McCain in New York and California and still manage to carry the state.

And her agument is based on the 50 plus 1 strategy that carried Gore and Kerry to victory... oh wait, no, that didn't happen. Sure, if Gore had won Florida or if Kerry had won Ohio, but it doesn't have to play out that way. There are several purple states that could swing to Obama and that would give him the presidency.

Anyway, North Carolina will easily go to Obama because of demographics. Indiana is a toss-up but will lean toward Obama.

I doubt the DNC will give the nomination to the person behind in the popular vote and who won less states based on her assertion that she is more electable. If you're more "electable," then you wouldn't be behind in every possible way.

 

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Christopher Alan Miller
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 4:33pm | IP Logged | 4  

Don't be so sure about who gets the most popular votes. Clinton currently has more. Of course he got none in Michigan but even after adding all of the Michigan non-Clinton votes to Obama's total he only has a very slight lead.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democ ratic_vote_count.html

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Kevin Brown
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 8:25pm | IP Logged | 5  

Don't be so sure about who gets the most popular votes. Clinton currently has more. Of course he got none in Michigan but even after adding all of the Michigan non-Clinton votes to Obama's total he only has a very slight lead.

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Those votes, thanks to those states, do not officially count towards the tally.  Michigan especially since Obama wasn't even on the ballot.

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Joe Zhang
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 8:28pm | IP Logged | 6  

Let's just face it : Obama isn't really Black. And Hilary isn't really a woman. 
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Mike O'Brien
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 8:49pm | IP Logged | 7  

I keep hearing in the media (especially the right wing media, who is salivating at the idea of Hillary being the candidate) that they HAVE to seat Florida and Michigan - that it's only right - that we live in 50 states, not 48 and so on.

Let's let that hang in the air a moment.  Sniff it, if you will.  Savor the filthy irony.

Remember how the same right-wingers implemented a system in Florida that, in order to keep felons from voting, that excluded anyone with even similar names to said felons?

Let me really clearly spell it out here - Florida and Michigan, like said Floridian Felons, broke the rules and thus, are denied the vote.  And unlike Kathleen Harris, the Dems aren't going to cast a wide net and say that states that KIND of sound like Florida and Michigan can't be counted either.

Beyond disgusted...

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Mike O'Brien
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 9:03pm | IP Logged | 8  

Oh, by the way - while we're at it - and this has kind of been covered, but...

This idea that's going around right-wing radio about how Hillary is the winner because she took the big states?

Gore and Kerry took the big states in 2000 and 2004.  Does that make them President?

And as Matt Taibbi and others on this thread have pointed out - those states will vote Democrat no matter what - they're solid Blue states.

I have to say - I know politics is politics, but this latest batch of bullshit is frustrating in that none of it makes any sense if you give it the slightest thought... I suppose I'm all heated up from listening to right wing radio on the drive home from work, but they're throwing this bull-crap out like it's solid fact when in reality, it's transparently pathetic.  Grrrrr!  Wake up, America!

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Christopher Alan Miller
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 9:04pm | IP Logged | 9  

What ever happened to every vote counts? I guess that's only in certain yerars.

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Geoff Gibson
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 9:19pm | IP Logged | 10  

And as Matt Taibbi and others on this thread have pointed out - those
states will vote Democrat no matter what - they're solid Blue states


Mike:

Matt Taibbi is crazy funny and this week's article is a scream. But I don't
agree that those states are locked in Blue. In other years I think that could
be the case but I think for many Reagan Democrats a guy like McCain will be
appealing. By the same token I think Obama (not Clinton) could take some
traditional red states. Its a weird upside down sort of year.
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Mike O'Brien
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 11:10pm | IP Logged | 11  

Do you believe that Felons should vote, Christopher?

Rules are rules.  Florida and Michigan broke the rules, and they knew their votes would not be counted.  End of story.

Not everyone is allowed to vote. 

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Michael Roberts
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Posted: 23 April 2008 at 11:21pm | IP Logged | 12  

Not to mention that there were voters in both states who stayed home during the primaries because they knew their vote wasn't going to be counted.
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