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Joe Zhang
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 12843
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 10:51am | IP Logged | 1
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"
Joe, there's no reasonable comparison possible with the "Great Depression.""
I certainly hope that's true.
Where I used to live many of my neighbors were senior citizens whose lives were shaped by the Depression. Some of them told me of their heartbreaking experiences. Not fun.
I'd say most senior citizens are really at risk. Social security gives a person around a thousand a month. That just barely covered bills prior to the runaway gas prices. There's savings. But because people are living a great deal longer than they expected (active, almost spry well into their 80's) those savings get used up. And of course they don't hesitate to use savings to help their children and grandchildren, which I've personally witnessed. Some of them work at McDonalds. Some of them are mortgaging their houses piecemeal in another wonderful "financial innovation" called the reverse mortgage.
Wiped out pension funds can really mess things up for them. They're just like younger people, in the sense that they have social lives, they want to go places, experience things. And they also need to eat. All of the stuff that's going down is going to make things very difficult for them. None of it is their fault.
(Of course, Alan Greenspan is in his late eighties, so I guess it's the fault of at least one of their own. )
Edited by Joe Zhang on 30 September 2008 at 10:53am
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Joe Zhang
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 12843
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 11:02am | IP Logged | 2
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" I can't think of a better way to enter a recession...again, a normal part of the business cycle."
Uh, Mike, at this point you're the only one drinking that flavor sensation. I applaud your magnificent dedication to those ideas, though.
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Horace Austin
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 03 November 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 634
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 11:02am | IP Logged | 3
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Jozef Brandt wrote:
Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid's legacies too.
(and really Barney Frank and Chuck Schumer for brushing aside calls for reform for the last 7 years).
***
That's a fair point. This is a bipartisan debacle.
But, taking the long term view, we often forget legislators. We remember Presidents.
Off the top of your head, can you name the Democratic leaders in the House and Senate when the stock market crashed in 1929? We remember that it happened on Herbert Hoover's watch and he was voted out in 1932.
Off the top of your head, can you name the Republican leaders in the House and Senate when we had stagflation in the late 1970s? We remember that it happened on Jimmy Carter's watch and he was voted out in 1980.
50 years from now, we're not gonna remember Pelosi or Reid. We will remember Bush. This will be remembered for happening under his watch.
Edited by Horace Austin on 30 September 2008 at 11:08am
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Michael Retour
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 May 2006
Posts: 932
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 11:12am | IP Logged | 4
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Mike M.,
Let's let people know that when we're talking about "the market" just how many stocks we're talking about here. We're not talking about just 30 stocks but 1000s. Right? I certainly am. I am not talking about the 30 stocks that comprise the Dow.
Yes, markets go up and down.
The main concern is the derivatives (of all sorts). You disagree? $700b would be eaten up very, very quickly. Those derivatives are rapacious. $700b is nothing compared to the credit swaps alone (and those are small compared to the derivatives as a whole). Ben Stein said about $62 trillion in credit swaps alone. Am I missing something? Please, no "notional" talk but what am I missing here? The $700b is a drop in the bucket. As the NY Times pointed out the Democrats (who are just as guilty) attempted to twist the arms of retiring Republicans into voting for this bill.
How much was tossed at markets worldwide the past several weeks? I'd say probably close to $500b, perhaps more. What did it get the central banks? Nothing except more bank failures worldwide and a deeper mess. One CEO jumped in front of a train in the UK. Kirk Stephenson of the "most successful private equity
firm" jumped in front of a train according to the London Independent. To me that is tragic but not as tragic as the 10s of 1000s losing their homes. Have any of them killed themselves? You call this a correction? People jumping in front of trains and losing their homes, their nest eggs, their pensions, their jobs? That is just a correction? Excuse me but I think it is a tragedy and one that someone has to be held accountable for. It just didn't happen. Nothing just happens Mike.
City banker throws himself in front of train
You actually believe the people involved are so smart and so wise they have everything covered? If so, why didn't they act beforehand to avert this?
Can this be compared to the Depression of the 1930s? In a way it is probably much worse worldwide. One difference is that in the 1930s you didn't have 100s of trillions of dollars worth of derivatives did you? You had a different Ponzi scheme that was exposed by Pecora's hearings right Mike? That is what brought the regulation in. Criminal behavior. Fraud.
Various government regulators were told to shut up weren't they? Hmm? I can cite examples if you like.
The Iraq war was sold by telling people to produce intel to sell the war not the truth.
I am talking globally. This is global. It isn't confined to the US. You call the millions of deaths from starvation what? A correction? You actually call that a correction? Starvation? Or doesn't that figure into the equation? Is it market forces showing us there are just too many people? Or a depression? Granted, the starvation is mainly in Africa and Asia but doesn't that indicate anything to you at all? Nothing to do with economic policy?
How about the foreclosures? We can't compare those to the Depression because there is no FDR to put a halt to them now.
If this isn't as bad as Paulson would have us all believe and it is just a mere business cycle why is he trying to scare everyone? Why are financial commentators attempting to suggest if this bailout doesn't pass the Devil will come to the Earth and eat us all?
Incidentally, why was existing regulation not enforced Mike? If you're saying the regulation on the books is good enough but just wasn't being enforced maybe these new hearings will find out why. If the people some would like to give the steering wheel to are so intelligent why didn't they come up with this new global set of rules to deal with this sort of "correction" that is happening worldwide?
Mike weren't the markets going up and down long before we were born? You say after a week of manipulation we had a down day. Who manipulated the markets Mike? We just didn't have a down day. Institutions that withstood the Depression are now gone. That's just a down day? A down week? Whatever you want to call it Mike? Now, if these gentlemen were so intelligent (Paulson is one of them let's not forget) how come they were seized, or went under? Didn't they realize what they were doing? Are we at that level on incompetence? And, if we are why should anyone listen to you? Clearly, you're involved in this as a broker or some functionary etc. What else are you going to say? You're not going to lie like Jimmie Cramer are you? He's trying to panic people. How come?
To really put a point on the level of desperation is the picture of George Bush (one of the most despised men in America) being trotted out to beg for passage of this bailout. That's really pathetic isn't it?
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Dan Avenell
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 06 March 2008
Posts: 1038
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 11:34am | IP Logged | 5
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Fathers who kill themselves (apparently) because they are not going to be as rich as they used to be don't get much sympathy from me.
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Michael Retour
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 May 2006
Posts: 932
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 1:41pm | IP Logged | 6
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Mike M.,
I am curious whom you think are the economic experts?
The guys are Countrywide? Bear Stearns? IndyMac? Fannie? Freddie? Lehman? AIG? WaMu? Wachovia? The Fed? The government? I can go to the European banks falling over if you like.
Go ahead and name me some economists that you feel are competent. The University of Chicago fellows were circulating a petition (they got like 100 economists according to the Chicago Trib) against the bailout last Monday. Then this Monday they changed their minds. One of the drafter's of that petition was moaning the bailout didn't pass in the Trib today. He sure had a quick change of heart. So are these economists at U. of C. experts? If so, then how come they changed their minds so quickly? Do they know what they are doing or have they spent too much time in the Ivory Tower and not enough on the trading floor?
I am not trying to trap you into anything but genuinely curious, given your above statements. Given that millions die daily from starvation and you call that not a worldwide depression but a "correction" that is part of a business cycle. From just looking over your posts you don't even take into account worldwide conditions of people but you look at statistics that I don't really trust and I am no expert but I don't believe you are either (you might be though). I mean, water projects could create jobs and save lives and certainly money could be made off such sorts of deals right? Other such projects could bring a lot of money into the US and put a lot of those disputed BLS folks back to work (whatever their true number is).
Oh yeah, sorry to edit, but I am curious just how many municipal bankruptcies you think we will see? I say a lot.
Edited by Michael Retour on 30 September 2008 at 1:54pm
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Jodi Moisan
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 19 February 2008
Location: United States
Posts: 6808
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 1:43pm | IP Logged | 7
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Did McCain just pull her name out of a hat? troopergate and now this:
Basically it is about taking bribes from those that needed favors from the government in Alaska, $25,000 according to the washington post
http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7012444586
http://www.newstrackindia.com/newsdetails/19024
*Removed article to not get anyone in trouble.
Edited by Jodi Moisan on 30 September 2008 at 2:23pm
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Matt Reed
Byrne Robotics Security
Robotmod
Joined: 16 April 2004
Posts: 36446
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 1:56pm | IP Logged | 8
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One big thing, guys. I've noticed a ton of cutting and pasting of relevant information from a number of websites and a ton of it from news sources like the AP. Several months ago I started a thread about the AP aggressively pursuing just that sort of thing with regard to their content. I would really appreciate it if you guys could supply links only, not cut and paste, and then direct people where in the link to read. I know it's a pain, but I'd rather avoid any entanglements with a huge company like AP.
Jodi, a little Google search turned up your above article comes from Metalbulletin.com, a site that you have to register to read ( http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&tab=wn&ned=us& q=Alaska+Gov.+Palin+under+fire+for+gifts+from+miner%3A+repor ts) . With that in mind, I think registration means they own the content. I'd ask that you please take it down, summarize what it says if you're so inclined, and then link to the site. People can decide for themselves if they want to register to read the full article.
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Wallace Sellars
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 01 May 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 17803
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 2:28pm | IP Logged | 9
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Good idea, Matt. I had a similar concern when people were posting (almost) entire issues of comics a while back.
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Gene Best
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 24 October 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 4598
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 2:37pm | IP Logged | 10
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Here you go - the quick and easy way to settle all this who-should-be-president jibber jabber:
ABCNEWS.com: Match-O-Matic 2
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Al Cook
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 21 December 2004
Posts: 12735
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 3:19pm | IP Logged | 11
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Good link, Gene!
I'll be interested in how people score. I was Obama on all but one - the very
first economy question.
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Donald Miller
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 03 February 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 3601
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| Posted: 30 September 2008 at 3:22pm | IP Logged | 12
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I was Obama all the way with the exception of Global Warming.
Don
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Topic Closed)
