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Michael Myers
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 8:29am | IP Logged | 1  

"What do you think the current situation holds for the age of rampant government deregulation?"

The need is for "smart" regulation.  If you look over the failures and backstop measures, the institutions were both lightly regulated (Bear-Stearns), relatively speaking, and heavily regulated, as in the case of the banking industry.  With the notable exceptions of the 90's repeal of Glass-Steagal and the uptick and naked shorts rule under the SEC, we haven't really seen a wave of heavy deregulation.  What we have seen is a failure to adjust fully to a global market and impose intelligent new regulation.  An example is in the lack of regulation of ratings' agencies in the bond markets.

With regard to oversight, we'll certainly see an increased emphasis.  However, look at the House bill, yesterday, where even the compensation dictates of the democrats were pushed back to include only those corporations actually failing.  This was an example of a careful hand in compromise, as there was no call to punish ostensibly healthy institutions buying ijto the proposal.  Smart regulation and compromise of this sort is where it'll be coming down.
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Bruce Buchanan
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 8:35am | IP Logged | 2  

But don't forget - you don't lose money on these investments until you sell. Historic trends show that the market will bounce back, so if you hold on to these investments, you should be okay.

Of course, it's easy to say that, but a lot harder to truly believe it. I'm in the same boat you guys are in. I'm no Warren Buffett by any means, but my family's savings are largely tied up in the stock market. That's retirement money (401 (k)) and my son's college fund, so, yeah, I'm nervous too. Even before yesterday's drop, the market already had been in a major slump in the past year or so.

However, I keep telling myself to thing long-term. By the time I'm able to retire (or by the time the boy starts college), the market should be healthy again and things will be fine.

The people I feel for are those folks who are reaching retirement age. This downturn certainly could have a huge impact on their ability to retire.

And thanks for the kind words, Geoff. You're a pretty thoughtful, reasonable guy yourself!

 

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Scott Richards
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 8:39am | IP Logged | 3  

Also, amidst all of this, I wonder how ANYONE can continue to defend the policies of George W. Bush.

I think Bush is the worse President we've ever had, but to be fair, this can't be blamed on him.  Congress is every bit as much to blame.

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Michael Myers
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 8:40am | IP Logged | 4  

"Joe ask Mike Myers.  Heh."

Smiling.  Sorry, Michael, the world financial markets aren't coming to an end any time soon.  Look at yesterday.  After a week-and-a-half of having the markets manipulated by talk of the "bail-out", the market dropped.  But to what degree?  Percentage wise, the drop wasn't even in the top ten...much less was it directly comparable to drops like 1987, etc.  We'll continue to see the market go up and down over the next few weeks.  We'll see dips and ups all along the way as some alternative plan gets hammered out, for instance, and we'll see a drop when the new employment figures come out.  Then, there's reaction to the "panic" mindset itself, and reaction to overseas troubles.

BTW, thanks for the Kucinich quote...it's not often, he and I agree.


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Bruce Buchanan
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 8:44am | IP Logged | 5  

As far as regulation/deregulation goes, it's inaccurate to say a lack of regulation caused this problem, as I understand it. There literally are tens of thousands of pages of laws governing the capital markets. It's one of the most heavily regulated areas of business.

Now, if you want to say we need better and smarter regulation, then there may be some merit in that.

But I wonder how much of this is really within the government's power to fix. How much of this was caused by irresponsible behavior by companies and individuals?

I read an interesting column recently about how Americans no longer view thrift as a virtue. Our grandparents' generation believed in saving and conserving. But we now live in a credit card society, where millions of people live beyond their means. Corporations have adopted the same "casino" mentality, trading in prudent business practices for the go-for-broke pursuit of easy money.

But how do you change this culture? I have no idea.

 

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Bruce Buchanan
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 8:49am | IP Logged | 6  

I think Bush is the worse President we've ever had, but to be fair, this can't be blamed on him.  Congress is every bit as much to blame.

**********

Not to mention banks, mortgage lenders, homeowners, etc. Trying to pin this mess on any president (Bush or Clinton) is like blaming them for a flu epidemic. There's plenty of blame to go around in this mess, and the Executive Branch is only one small part of it.

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Michael Myers
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 8:51am | IP Logged | 7  

The "credit crunch" has been ongoing for a year--in full swing since Bear-Stearns--as institutions tightened their lending beyond what it had been; what people had been accustomed to over the last few years, that is to say.  Historically, it's simply a return to pre-boom levels.  There have got to be a dozen or more cats in this forum who deal with corporate lines and have experienced the byproducts of more strict standards.

As to state-chartered banks, credit unions and the local savings and loan...no.  They've still got plenty of juice to offer out.  It has become cliche, but this truly isn't a solvency question at its heart.  What Bush and Secretary Paulson were attempting is the mitigation of a recession at the expense of sound economic theory.  Accepted money supply theory twisted beyond recognition.  Besides, it's better to have the recession spread from the markets and corporate lending; than to have macroeconomic factors in the general population spur the recession.  Market led recessions are the least sustained, historically. 

Something is going to get pushed through, but, to mix my metaphors, bad cases make bad law, and I hope it'll be a plan based on sound policy.


EDIT:  'Just wanted to clarify that second paragraph.  All the indicators over the last two quarters (the exception being the good GDP growth of the 2nd Quarter, even after revision) have evidenced a looming recession.  With the market absorbing the attention, people will tend to look at the employment figures and inevitable GDP slowdown as resulting from the market troubles.  I can't think of a better way to enter a recession...again, a normal part of the business cycle.  We've had almost 15 years of relatively uninterrupted growth (the only interruption being the early 2000's and only a few quarters of interruption, then) and the market is long overdue for a full correction.


Edited by Michael Myers on 30 September 2008 at 9:07am
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Geoff Gibson
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 8:53am | IP Logged | 8  

Our grandparents' generation believed in saving and conserving.

In no small part because of the Great Depression! The question is will this current crisis bring about new fiscal conservation or has the consumerism which you allude to, too ingrained in our national psyche to effect change?

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Michael Myers
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 8:54am | IP Logged | 9  

"Now, if you want to say we need better and smarter regulation, then there may be some merit in that."


Well, said, Bruce.  'Couldn't agree more completely.
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Robin Taylor
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 9:07am | IP Logged | 10  

 Michael Huber wrote:
Are you the Robin Taylor from the Next Men letters page?


Yup thats me d00d just caught me off guard to be "quoted", I thought you were being sarcastic. If you want the full overly long letter I sent to both NM and Spawn check out Spawn 11 (i think, the one with Cerebus)-JB edited my verbiage down, Macfarlane didn't.

RT
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Joe Zhang
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 9:18am | IP Logged | 11  

What's sad is that many of the younger survivors of the Great Depression are still with us. Do they deserve to live through it (or something like it) again? 
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Michael Myers
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Posted: 30 September 2008 at 9:20am | IP Logged | 12  

Joe, there's no reasonable comparison possible with the "Great Depression."
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