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Scott Richards
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 6:56am | IP Logged | 1  

Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your political affiliation) neither Clinton or Obama will end up in the White House.  2008 will see President McCain elected and not because of the Republicans.

There is such animosity between the Clinton and Obama camps/supporters that if Obama gets the nomination enough of the Clinton backers will vote for McCain just to not vote for Obama.  The same holds true if Clinton gets the nomination.  Enough of the Obama supporters would vote for McCain just to not vote for Clinton.  The end result will be everyone (again depending on your affiliation) loses and McCain wins.

If this occurs though, it won't be a horrible thing, it will just be a waste of 4 years.  Nothing would get done.  The Republican President and Democratic Congress would deadlock for 4 years.  We'd be coasting until 2012 preparing for an all-new battle between the parties.  Hopefully by that point the Democratic Party can be unified.

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Adam Hutchinson
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 7:19am | IP Logged | 2  


 QUOTE:
if Obama gets the nomination enough of the Clinton backers will vote for McCain just to not vote for Obama.  The same holds true if Clinton gets the nomination.  Enough of the Obama supporters would vote for McCain just to not vote for Clinton.

I saw CNN trying to play this up last night.  I just don't buy it.  It's very hard for me to imagine anyone who's supporting Clinton or Obama pulling the lever for McCain in November, especially based on spite.  I think a lot of Democrats learned their lesson about voting out of spite in 2000. 

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Tom French
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 8:27am | IP Logged | 3  

So then, who's gonna vote for Nader?
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Adam Hutchinson
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 9:15am | IP Logged | 4  

Not I, said the fly!
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Kevin Hagerman
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 10:34am | IP Logged | 5  

It's not the supporters that will hurt the opposing candidates.  If Obama gets the nom, Hillary has slipped him enough poison pills to give it to McCain.  If Hillary gets the nom, she may be able to heal the rift, because Obama hasn't done the same.

If we get McCain for President and a occasionally veto-proof Congress, it could be a very god thing.  McCain has Bill Clinton's ability to compromise going for him - but he won't budge an inch without being forced.  He'd be a less still-believing-my-own-hype Reagan, who kept getting his vetoes overturned near the end of his term.

On a side note:

This has been a more-or-less civil discussion and I appreciate that.  I'm also honestly thrilled to see so many posts from members who have been here for years but have sub-1000 post counts.  It's nice to see something coherent between my own ramblings!

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Scott Richards
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 2:30pm | IP Logged | 6  

I saw CNN trying to play this up last night.  I just don't buy it.  It's very hard for me to imagine anyone who's supporting Clinton or Obama pulling the lever for McCain in November, especially based on spite.  I think a lot of Democrats learned their lesson about voting out of spite in 2000. 

The only way I could see that would be if it ended up being a Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket.  That would trump animosity that might have made a McCain vote.

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Mike O'Brien
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 3:03pm | IP Logged | 7  

I don't know - according to the Clinton supporters, they'd vote for Obama, which makes them morally superior to Obama supporters, who wouldn't vote for Clinton - at least that's the party line.... (they're leaving out the part where Democrats can't bring themselves to vote for a right-winger like Clinton)

In which case, it's moot, since by all math and figures, it's Obama's election.  So... we have nothing to worry about.   Clinton's morally superior supporters will come through and vote for Obama.

Problem solved.

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Kevin Hagerman
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 3:06pm | IP Logged | 8  

Cool!  Now we can get to work on a cabinet!

Oh, wait...

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Michael Penn
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 3:15pm | IP Logged | 9  

I saw CNN trying to play this up last night.  I just don't buy it.

***

At least Anderson Cooper pretty much poo-poo'ed the idea even as he was reporting it.

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Brian Hunt
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 3:22pm | IP Logged | 10  

There is such animosity between the Clinton and Obama camps/supporters that if Obama gets the nomination enough of the Clinton backers will vote for McCain just to not vote for Obama.  The same holds true if Clinton gets the nomination.  Enough of the Obama supporters would vote for McCain just to not vote for Clinton.  The end result will be everyone (again depending on your affiliation) loses and McCain wins.

We could also see the same effect if their individual supporters decided to abstain from voting if their candidate isn't on the ballot.  That would allow McCain to win without having to convert those voters.  This wouldn't happen a lot, but in closely contested states it could be a big difference.

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Mike O'Brien
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 4:11pm | IP Logged | 11  

Don't be so hasty in waiting, Kevin - why not?  Let's start making our Obama dream team - should we assume that Richardson is a strong contender for VP?  Any other ideas? 

 

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Paul Greer
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Posted: 27 March 2008 at 4:30pm | IP Logged | 12  

I voted for Nader in the Clinton/Dole election. But I'll go for either Obama or Clinton against McCain. My gut tells me that both candidates have as little of a chance winning as Nader does. Not because they are splitting the party. The swing vote is larger than the media gives credit to, and I think the confusion in the Democratic party is hurting their chances to gain their support. If McCain wins just remember I predicted it last year in another thread where none of you guys agreed with me. I'd like to be wrong. But if I'm correct, I want full credit for my powers of seeing into the future.

 

 

 

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