Matt Reed wrote: We were also talking about this last night.  I have a really good feeling about the legs on this film.  I think quite a few people actually stayed away this weekend because of memories of the last two Batman films. I think that strong word-of-mouth after this weekend will result in a strong second weekend for the film.  I'm gonna bet that we won't see as steep a drop off in attendance as we normally do with second weekends.  Also, when words gets out that this film is incredible on IMAX (with ticket prices more expensive than regular screens) people will pay the price for a better experience.  The theatre was packed last night.  I think the film has excellent repeat viewing potential as well.  I know I can't wait to see it again! Seriously, I think it's going to do much better than $200 mil.  My guess is $250 - 275 mil.

Ok. I'll bet you you are wrong.  I think the movie tops out at $180 million or less.  i think it's opening is definitely a disappointment. 

Risky bet i am making-because it depends if it has the typical big dropoff in the second week.  And with Bewitched and Herbie and the kids all out from school for the first time, it probably won't dropoff as much.

But that's my bet $180 million, or less.

2005 OPENING GROSSES

To kake the same as Hitch or Longest Yard to me is a disappoinment-albeit it did have a Wednesday opening. As i said, school should be over by Friday for everyone, so I may be wrong-iyt shoukd make more during the week then other films this year.  But still-it is nowehere neard what the Spider or X movies made.

As I said in the other BB thread, I saw the film again for the third time, and, again, it was a full house. Plus, this Sunday, today, is Father's Day. I suspect we'll see some good numbers because of this.

I also agree that word of mouth will help this film. I've already seen people on this board and at my shop that are thinking about seeing it after hearing/reading what people they know have said/wrote.

Zaki Hasan wrote:  Rob Hewitt wrote: But still-it is nowehere neard what the Spider or X movies made. In this business while a strong start is no doubt important, what's equally important is the strong finish.  Lest we forget, in recent times both PLANET OF THE APES and HULK opened with record or close-to-record openings, only to flame out pretty much instantly and pretty much kiboshing the all-important "franchise" plans for both films. I'd rather see BATMAN BEGINS rise slowly and steadily then rocket out the gate and collapse (not to say that the movie's haul so far is anything to be disappointed by).

I agree with you to some extent, but think it is increasingly rare for a movie today to last more than a month or so.  Most make a huge chunk of their total in the first week-Titanic and My Big Fat Greek Wedding not withstanding.  Especially movies geared to young males, as Batman is.  Older geared movies and female movies tend to start slower and last longer.  The crucial test is this next weekend. You guys might be right-next weekend is fairly week, and school is out all over by Friday.   

But, comparing it to Hitch, I'm predicting $180 million.  And hey, it's just a guess-only Kang the Conqueror knows for sure.

and now some the buzz is that Batman is a disappointment, which can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.  http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2005-06-19-box-offi ce-analysis_x.htm

quotes from the article

• solid if unspectacular $46.9 million
• Batman fell $10 million short of the most conservative expectations
• But by comparison, Mr. & Mrs. Smith performed better from Friday-Sunday a week ago.
• and some predicted it would compete with Star Wars, Episode III: Revenge of the Sith, which has taken in $347.8 million
• Analysts now wonder whether Batman can recoup its $135 million budget in domestic ticket sales
• The film's less-than-stellar debut

Even if you disagree, if this becomes the talk, that alone could impact revenue.

Obviously, between international and DVD, it will do fine, no matter how it does domestically.