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John Wickett
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Posted: 06 January 2025 at 11:00pm | IP Logged | 1 post reply

"This is, sadly, the legacy of Obama. A Black man in the Oval Office filled a lot of Americans with fear."

I don't buy that. Obama won a decisive electoral victory over McCain, along with a 10.5M vote advantage in the popular vote.  If there was going to be a whitelash, I'd expect to have seen that in 2012, but we didn't.

Romney was a stronger candidate than McCain, and had strong appeal to moderates in both parties, as evidenced by being elected the Republican governor of Massachusetts.  But Obama won the electoral vote decisively again, and still won the popular vote by 5M.   

Had Obama been allowed to run again, I think he could have beaten Trump to earn a third term.

Trump/Clinton was a choice between two bad candidates, and Trump barely won.

Since then, we've lived in very unusual circumstances, with a global pandemic that was unprecedented in modern times, both parties shifting dramatically away from the center (making America much more divided than usual) a presidential candidate withdrawing from the race with less than four months before the election, etc.  Remove any of those factors and its tough to say who would have won the elections (or even who would have secured the party nominations).

In 2020 Biden ran as a "transition candidate" (his words) with a woman of color on the ballot, which created another opportunity for a whitelash, but instead Biden crushed Trump.

Does racism exist?  Absolutely?  Does it influence some voters?  Undoubtably.  Is it the reason Trump was elected?  I'm sure it was a factor, but its impossible to say to what extent, but I think previous election results (especially 2012 and 2020) point to it not being the main factor.

I think this was another year with two bad choices, and we've learned in the post mortems that Harris's campaign was badly run, but if she'd had more than 3 months, I think there was a realistic opportunity for her to beat Trump.  They were only 1.5% apart on the popular vote, and while Trump had a solid electoral win, the margin in many of the states he won was very close.  
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John Byrne
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Posted: 06 January 2025 at 11:20pm | IP Logged | 2 post reply

Dream on.
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Steven Myers
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Posted: 07 January 2025 at 3:21pm | IP Logged | 3 post reply

The reason I think racism and sexism played their part has as much to do with the Republican primary as the general election. Nikki Haley was a much more qualified candidate than Trump but had no chance to dethrone him. And also Trump could easily have chosen her or another running mate who was a woman or POC. Putting two white men on the ballot was a deliberate choice to appeal to a specific audience.
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ron bailey
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Posted: 07 January 2025 at 3:23pm | IP Logged | 4 post reply

If it was a full cycle allowing for a proper Democratic primary contest, I doubt Harris would have won the nomination. 
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John Wickett
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Posted: 07 January 2025 at 6:32pm | IP Logged | 5 post reply

Ron, I agree.  But she did get the nomination.  My point was that her chances were hurt by having a truncated campaign.  

Obama decisively won two terms, after which Trump beat an all-white Democratic ticket, then lost to a ticket with a woman of color on the ballot.  It doesn't follow that Trump's second term is a result of the country being afraid of having another black president.

I think Steven has a better argument implicating Republicans, and I agree with him that Haley was a more qualified candidate (she was the candidate I supported), but I don't think she lost because of race.  Polling showed a huge majority of Americans believed the country was headed in the wrong direction (whatever that means).  People were upset with the government for a variety of reasons, and Trump was able to convince enough voters that he was the anti-establishment candidate, and (in the general election) that Biden/Harris's policies were responsible for inflation. 
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John Byrne
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Posted: 07 January 2025 at 7:06pm | IP Logged | 6 post reply

It doesn't follow that Trump's second term is a result of the country being afraid of having another black president.

•••

Just half the country.

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ron bailey
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Posted: 07 January 2025 at 7:08pm | IP Logged | 7 post reply

That's my point, that she "got" the nomination, not fought for it/earned it. All this navel gazing about what it means for the Democratic Party is skewed by the fact that had things been done properly, a candidate that was better set up through the normal process to take on Trump probably would have succeeded. The fact that her campaign was so handicapped and it still wasn't a landslide, with 8+ million less votes cast, suggests this. 
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John Wickett
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Posted: 07 January 2025 at 11:22pm | IP Logged | 8 post reply

Agreed, and IMO had that hypothetical candidate (no matter who they were) defeated Trump we wouldn't be talking about racism right now.
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John Byrne
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Posted: 07 January 2025 at 11:39pm | IP Logged | 9 post reply

There are none so blind…..
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Mark Haslett
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Posted: 08 January 2025 at 1:55am | IP Logged | 10 post reply

If we didn’t talk about it, it wouldn’t be there-right?
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John Wickett
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Posted: 08 January 2025 at 10:46pm | IP Logged | 11 post reply

Of course it would.  Its always been there, and always will be there.  The question is whether it determined the outcome of the election.
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Scott Wagahoff
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Posted: 09 January 2025 at 11:17am | IP Logged | 12 post reply

Actually...

My initial question was how the events of January 6th didn't immediately disqualify that particular rancid hot dog from EVER being considered for president again. We can argue the merits of why Harris lost (and the think pieces are abundant) but it should have been to another Republican. 
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