Posted: 06 January 2025 at 11:00pm | IP Logged | 1
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"This is, sadly, the legacy of Obama. A Black man in the Oval Office filled a lot of Americans with fear."
I don't buy that. Obama won a decisive electoral victory over McCain, along with a 10.5M vote advantage in the popular vote. If there was going to be a whitelash, I'd expect to have seen that in 2012, but we didn't.
Romney was a stronger candidate than McCain, and had strong appeal to moderates in both parties, as evidenced by being elected the Republican governor of Massachusetts. But Obama won the electoral vote decisively again, and still won the popular vote by 5M.
Had Obama been allowed to run again, I think he could have beaten Trump to earn a third term.
Trump/Clinton was a choice between two bad candidates, and Trump barely won.
Since then, we've lived in very unusual circumstances, with a global pandemic that was unprecedented in modern times, both parties shifting dramatically away from the center (making America much more divided than usual) a presidential candidate withdrawing from the race with less than four months before the election, etc. Remove any of those factors and its tough to say who would have won the elections (or even who would have secured the party nominations).
In 2020 Biden ran as a "transition candidate" (his words) with a woman of color on the ballot, which created another opportunity for a whitelash, but instead Biden crushed Trump.
Does racism exist? Absolutely? Does it influence some voters? Undoubtably. Is it the reason Trump was elected? I'm sure it was a factor, but its impossible to say to what extent, but I think previous election results (especially 2012 and 2020) point to it not being the main factor.
I think this was another year with two bad choices, and we've learned in the post mortems that Harris's campaign was badly run, but if she'd had more than 3 months, I think there was a realistic opportunity for her to beat Trump. They were only 1.5% apart on the popular vote, and while Trump had a solid electoral win, the margin in many of the states he won was very close.
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