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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 9003
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| Posted: 19 October 2024 at 3:16am | IP Logged | 1
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Early voting is breaking records right now, which generally bodes well for the Democrats.
Georgia already has 1.1 million early votes. NC broken the single day record on the first day with 350,000.
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Matt Reed
Byrne Robotics Security
Robotmod
Joined: 16 April 2004
Posts: 36067
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| Posted: 19 October 2024 at 6:37am | IP Logged | 2
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Ron Bailey wrote:
| How about more than half? |
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This is in reference to support. And it’s not even close to over 50%. Sorry, doom and gloomsters, it ain’t over!
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James Johnson
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 March 2009
Location: United States
Posts: 2173
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| Posted: 19 October 2024 at 3:39pm | IP Logged | 3
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From my understanding, the total margin of victory for this election in the swing states can possibly fill Yankee Stadium 🏟.
Out of over 160 million registered voters, it comes down to 50K people in 3 states.
I know all about the Electoral College, but that's still fucked up.
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Dave Kopperman
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 December 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 3450
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| Posted: 21 October 2024 at 2:03pm | IP Logged | 4
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From 538's election simulator, most recent run:
This is the first time Trump has come out on top since Harris passed him back in August. So we're now back to that eternal pants-shitting moment in the lead up to Election Day.
Edited by Dave Kopperman on 21 October 2024 at 5:36pm
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Charles Valderrama
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 4859
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| Posted: 21 October 2024 at 10:12pm | IP Logged | 5
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There are broken election simulators, and then there is reality.
Ppl are working overtime in these final weeks to cause confusion.
LET'S JUST VOTE.
-C!
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 9003
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| Posted: 22 October 2024 at 12:37pm | IP Logged | 6
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538 has been notoriously wrong since 2014. Supposedly he fixed the algorithms, but obviously he hasn't. Like most polls, he's not taking new voters into account.
Anyway, in 2016, he had Hilary winning 58% of the time. We saw what happened there.
2018, he saw the Republican taking full control of the Senate and House. It didn't happen.
2020, he had Trump winning 53% of the time. Again, we saw what happened.
2022, he predicted a massive "red wave". That didn't happen.
And now the above.
As Charles said, LET'S JUST VOTE.
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Brad Wilders
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 15 December 2008
Posts: 183
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| Posted: 22 October 2024 at 2:28pm | IP Logged | 7
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Kevin,
Winning 58% of the time means predicted to win 58 out of 100 times. By definition, she was predicted to lose 42 out of 100 times. Those are odds that happen everyday! 538 forecast a very close race in 2016, which turned out to be true despite pundit wisdom that Trump could never win.
Also, Nate Silver no longer runs 538 and it no longer uses his models. But, in any event, he did not predict Trump beating Biden 53% of the time in 2020. The final forecast prior to election day was 89%.
People don't seem to understand these forecasts. Moving from 48/52 (Trump/Harris) to 52/48 (Harris/Trump) might look like an important movement toward Trump because there is an exchange across the 50/50 line but it is a virtually meaningless difference--like a football game where one team is a 1-point favorite. Both forecasts show a virtually tied race.
The polls tell the same story, almost all of which are within the statistical margin error. "LET'S JUST VOTE" is the right attitude, as any variation from predicted turnout could be decisive for one side or the other!
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Dave Kopperman
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 27 December 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 3450
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| Posted: 22 October 2024 at 3:22pm | IP Logged | 8
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All of what Brad said, with the note that a shift in the odds reflects a shift and tightening of the polls - so the fact that they'd had Kamala up for several weeks in a row (as high as 60/40 after the debate bounce) and that it's shifted to Trump with a slight edge reflects the reality that it's not only a tight race but has been a tightening one.
I remain a staunch Democrat, and one of the reasons I AM a Democrat is that I'm a firm believer in trusting scientists and experts. Robust data collection and transparent analysis and methodology is always the thing I favor, even as sometimes the results run counter to my own wishes or lived experience.
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 133512
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| Posted: 23 October 2024 at 1:04pm | IP Logged | 9
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Harris dodged a question on whether she would pardon Trumf.
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Casey Sager
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 745
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| Posted: 23 October 2024 at 1:27pm | IP Logged | 10
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I "love" the idea that pardoning a criminal somehow unifies the country.
I'm sure when Ford pardoned Nixon it made people who are against elites being above the law feel all unified.
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Michael Penn
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 April 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 12760
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| Posted: 23 October 2024 at 1:48pm | IP Logged | 11
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> Harris dodged a question on whether she would pardon Trumf. <
Perhaps she still believes she can win over some of his voters?
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John Byrne
Grumpy Old Guy
Joined: 11 May 2005
Posts: 133512
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| Posted: 23 October 2024 at 2:06pm | IP Logged | 12
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Sad, if true.
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