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Koroush Ghazi
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Posted: 17 August 2024 at 5:07am | IP Logged | 1 post reply

 Steve Queen wrote:
 1) Also, move away from fiat-currency controlled by the Fed Reserve money-printing machine via bitcoin and move the federal budget onto blockchain for transparency.  The notion of the US creating a large bitcoin reserve is actually the only solution to the $32T debt I've hear (other than letting the economy eat it via hyperinflation) and its rather brilliant, because once the world see the US move in that direction, it will drive the cost of bitcoin up and begin reducing our debt.

Hi, as  an Economist and longtime fan of logical thinking and practical fact-based ideas let me just say this: I’ve never seen such a succinct and all-encompassing set of cliched slogans, nonsensical pseudo-economic claptrap and populist-pandering rubbish.

Aside from a couple of hyperinflation-riddled banana republics, the majority of sovereign states have enough sense to have their own currency - which only they can control. As opposed to a crypto which is controlled by anything from the Russian Mafia to the richest man-child in the world, Mr Elon “I’ll pump BTC on my social media platform that even Trump can’t misspell then dump it when it peaks” Musk, or a massive state-run Chinese GPU farm which can strategically and untracably alter prices. There’s also the totally random price fluctuations due to a range of impossible to predict factors such as memes, Reddit herd “investors”, and the elite-level graduates of the prestigious Bangladesh Upstairs Technical Institute and Laundry who produce those high quality fact-checked YouTube videos.

Another cross against BTC: it is inherently hyperinflationary. Why? Because there is a supposedly finite quantity of BTC that can be mined. So each “coin” will continue to rise in value/price over time. Of course, in practice, each coin can be split ad-infinitum, so the artificial scarcity the Bitcoin founders tried to build into this joke of a currency is actually false. 

Even more hilarious is the way in which, like any good Ponzi Scheme, BTC rewards early adopters with easier hashes = lots more coins for those who started mining earlier. So in theory, if the US adopted BTC as the national currency, the largest holders could be a couple of Taiwanese kids who lost a hard drive containing a wallet with a few thousand coins behind the fridge. If/when they find this drive and eagerly put those coins back into into circulation, the US dollar might drop in value by 60% overnight. Brilliant.

Lastly, from a practical everyday perspective, cryptos are incredibly wasteful (massive energy usage to crack otherwise worthless hashes); grossly inefficient to produce & maintain (remember, it requires greater effort/energy to “mine” over time); totally incapable of undertaking the number of transactions required everyday - https://www.statista.com/statistics/793539/bitcoin-transacti on-confirmation-time/">average transaction time is ~10 minutes but can be up to an hour when the network is under load and that’s with a fraction of the number of transactions per second for fiat currency.

I could go on but you oget the idea. This Mickey Mouse “currency” was invented by a group of educationally sub-normal neckbeards as their misguided mash note to the Gold Standard (hint: rational nation-states abandoned the Gold Standard long ago for a reason). It’s ironic that for a supposedly high-tech innovation, most cryptos are actually clunky replicas of the 18th century financial system, where only physical objects and activities determine value.

Will currencies of the future be digital? Of course. Will they be people-powered Wild West free-for-alls with all stability of a South American currency and the iron-clad backing of the Yemeni Rial? Nope. As a promissary note, currency is only viable and stable when the issuer is the state. Everything else is just online gambling with Monopoly money.


Edited by Koroush Ghazi on 17 August 2024 at 5:18am
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Steven Queen
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Posted: 17 August 2024 at 4:38pm | IP Logged | 2 post reply

Did you watch the videos I linked?  Do you have a solution (as an  economist) to Triffin's Dilemma?  If so, you can probably win a Noble Prize.

Two steps took us off hard currency: FDR made it illegal to private citizens to own gold during the Great Depression (lasted until 1973) and Nixon in 1971 in response to Europe wanting its gold reserves back.

Both moves were hyper-inflationary.  The 1970's in particular sucked and we are in many ways repeating them.  The petro-dollar was a stop-gap hard (commodity) solution, but recently Saudi Arabia started accepting other currencies to settle trade.  Foreign banks have largely stopped financing the US debt since 2008 and QE.

Speaking to "stability of South American currencies", El Salvador is in the middle of a major turn around (as is Argentina -- and Melei, is president, IS an economist).  El Salvador will begin issuing bitcoin-backed bonds.  Argentina is considering it too.  RFK Jr only suggested increasing the already existing US reserve of bitcoin.


I have no great love of bitcoin, but the point is a hard-backed currency (i.e. no nation can manipulate/inflate) is needed to solve many of the current global debit problems.  As the video points out, fiat currencies on average only last 80 years.  The US dollar took on that role post WWII.  You do the math.



Edited by Steven Queen on 17 August 2024 at 4:46pm
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Koroush Ghazi
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Posted: 18 August 2024 at 12:22am | IP Logged | 3 post reply

You win buzzword Bingo Steven, but I get the feeling that, quite possibly, you have little to no real understanding of what you speak of, and hence mostly rely on appeal to authority arguments.

The  real solution comes in the form of a combination of careful fiscal policy - not like the irresponsible tax cuts Trump doled out to the rich during an expansionary phase for example; and not the typically large, expensive (in fixed, and most importantly ongoing costs) military expansions which are GOP/far right SOP.
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Steven Queen
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Posted: 18 August 2024 at 1:47pm | IP Logged | 4 post reply

I am sorry to say Koroush, that I feel precisely the same way --- despite my preference for logical thinking 100% above experts who (*cough*)  flash their credentials in your face.  As the not-really-Einstein quote says, "If you can't explain it to your Grandmother, then you don't really understand it."

But keep insulting me.  I can take it.

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Jason Czeskleba
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Posted: 21 August 2024 at 9:08pm | IP Logged | 5 post reply

It appears likely Kennedy will drop out of the election this Friday and endorse Trump, after failing to get any traction in his attempt to create a bidding war for his endorsement.  What a man of integrity and character.  He will fit right into a hypothetical Trump cabinet.
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Casey Sager
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Posted: 21 August 2024 at 9:30pm | IP Logged | 6 post reply

Steven - Will you vote for Trump when RFK endorses him?
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Matt Hawes
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Posted: 21 August 2024 at 10:40pm | IP Logged | 7 post reply

RFK seemed like an obvious POS to me, so I'm not surprised if he endorses Trump.
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Jason Czeskleba
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Posted: 22 August 2024 at 12:33am | IP Logged | 8 post reply

Looks like Kennedy's asking price for an endorsement has dropped to vague assurances that Trump would be "open" to giving him some sort of role in his administration.  Empty promises from Trump is about as close to nothing at all as you can get. 
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Peter Hicks
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Posted: 22 August 2024 at 5:41pm | IP Logged | 9 post reply

2024 Polls in Texas:
Jan Trump +12
May. Trump +7
August Trump +5

Hmmmm.  I see a pattern, and I like it.  And Sen Ted Cruz only currently leads his opponent by +2, which is within the margin of error.  

As I said in the Harris thread though, I think flipping Florida will become the big prize by November,
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Dave Kopperman
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Posted: 22 August 2024 at 8:55pm | IP Logged | 10 post reply

Polls this far out can be deceiving, but for some context for myself, I took a look at the 2008 polls.  On this date sixteen years ago (!), McCain was leading Obama by an average of three points.  I don’t want to feel confident, but I’m allowing myself to feel a little hopeful.
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Jason Czeskleba
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Posted: 23 August 2024 at 11:20pm | IP Logged | 11 post reply

Well, Kennedy has officially dropped out and endorsed Trump.  He seems to think he's going to have some role in a Trump administration, but my prediction is that if Trump wins he will give Kennedy the Chris Christie treatment... ie, Kennedy will get absolutely nothing for debasing himself.
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John Wickett
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Posted: 24 August 2024 at 12:05am | IP Logged | 12 post reply

"Hmmmm.  I see a pattern, and I like it.  And Sen Ted Cruz only currently leads his opponent by +2, which is within the margin of error."

I think polls clearly show Harris closing the gap everywhere, but I'm not sure the numbers can be trusted.  Enthusiasm for Biden dropped so low after the debate that I think Harris is enjoying a bump in the polls just by not being him.  It remains to be seen how the numbers will adjust when voters become more familiar with her policy positions.  In that respect, I think it could go either way.  

I think we'll have a much better idea of where things stand after the next debate, and moving closer to the election.

I still think the biggest danger for Democrats is the potential enthusiasm gap.  If Trump gets roughly the same amount of support he received in the last election, then Dems will need a massive turnout to win.  Biden's numbers were unprecedented.  This year, with less mail-in balloting, and widespread perception that the economy is bad, can Harris pull a similar result?

We'll see.  Neither outcome would be surprising to me at this point.




Edited by John Wickett on 24 August 2024 at 12:32am
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