Unfortunately, we know this happens sometimes. Its estimated that the wrongful conviction rate is somewhere between 2% and 10%.  

The number of innocent people who are incarcerated for serious crimes is believed to be at the low end of these estimates.  Many wrongful convictions arise from false confessions in cases with low stakes (a defendant confesses to avoid doing any jail time).

There is even a special type of guilty plea, called an Alford plea, wherein a defendant can plead guilty while maintaining a claim of actual innocence.  In those cases, a defendant is asserting exactly what you suggested- that he is pleading guilty to mitigate the risks he would face by going to trial and being convicted.  

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A guilty plea is a guilty plea. Why would it be sealed? Generally sealed plea agreements are for folks who are cooperating on another case. The purpose is to protect a witness from being discovered and retaliated against. You don’t get a sealed plea agreement just because. 

True.  And I don't see how he would benefit from a sealed plea agreement.  The existence of an agreement, by definition means that he pleaded guilty to something, so the public would at least know that, and the likelihood of the remaining details being leaked at some point is high.  I think Trump has two priorities: avoid jail time, and control the narrative.  I think he would make a deal if he perceived it as the right deal.  

Hypothetical Example:  DOJ drops counts 32 and 34-37, and consolidates counts 1-31 into a single count.  Trump pleads guilty to Willful Retention of National Defense Information and Withholding a Document or Record.  He pays the maximum fine, but does no jail time.

Then the narrative is "I guess technically I did something wrong, but what I did was no different from what Crooked Hillary or Joe Biden did.  I was unfairly and selectively prosecuted in order to influence the 2024 election, which proves the DOJ is politicized against conservatives."  Also: "in my opinion I didn't do anything wrong, because I had the authority to declassify the documents at any time, but a $1M fine is nothing to Trump, so I paid it to get this out of the way so we can focus on what's really important- making America great again." The MAGA crowd would eat that up.

If he can't bargain his way out of jail time, then I agree with those who believe Trump is too arrogant/stubborn/stupid to accept a deal, and we will actually see this go to trial.

Up is down, down is up and more and more violence will occur because too little is being done to stop it. Curious how one could consider themselves patriotic putting one man over their country. Attacking the FBI, DOJ, law itself. I try to follow the news less and less, it is important to be informed but unhealthy to allow so much of this into your day to day life. I'll make whatever impact one person can at the polls.

This is political THEATER... but I can't imagine this nonsense will endear him to the strong support he needs to win an election. The MAGA crowd is formitable, but the rest of the country just might've learned something by now. (Keeping my fingers crossed.)

-C!

Let's remember how we got to this point.

On November 4th, 2008, we elected a black man (or half black or half white) who has "Hussein" as his middle name as the 44th Commander in Chief. 

He was re-elected in 2012.

There was/is a segment of the population and in congress that lost their fucking minds.

This is why we have an asshole stealing classified documents.

EDIT - Had his middle name wrong

Its outrageous.

There are a number of ways this could have been avoided.  If he had actually declassified the documents, he could have just had his staff make copies of the ones he wanted before he left office.  But Trump thinks he is above the law.

I don't even think its transactional, as Ron suggests, because if he was thinking this through, he would have taken one of the easy outs that were available to him, to avoid this.  He just thinks he's entitled to the documents because he was President, and he wants them.  

On Page 16 of the indictment, there is a transcript of a conversation between Trump, one of his staffers, and someone doing research for a book.  Here is part of the exchange, that takes place AFTER he's shown the classified military documents to the author:

Trump:  See, as President I could have declassified it.

Staffer: Yeah. (laughter)

Trump: Now I can't, you know, but this is still a secret.

Staffer: Yeah. (laughter)  Now we have a problem.

Trump: Isn't that interesting?

He clearly knows he is breaking the law, but they're laughing about this.  He clearly doesn't think there will be any consequence.