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It honestly depends on the judge. The proof is overwhelming, so even the most average of attorneys should win this.  BUT money means he'll probably will be able to buy himself out of it.

EDIT:  Here's the indictment in case anyone is interested.  It's a PDF.

After her last fuck-up, how was she given this?

"No one is above the law."

"The handling of classified documents is a serious matter."

"I had hoped the Department of Justice would see its way clear to resolve its issues with the former President without moving forward with charges."

(Bit of a contradiction between these points)

"No one knows the facts in this case." (not even the Grand Jury?)

As the old saying goes, a fool and his money…

Technically we haven't actually seen much proof yet, although its clear the evidence exists.  For example, in the indictment, we see photographs of boxes, but the government must prove the contents, which I assume they intend to do by offering the testimony of agents who searched them.

The reason I'm pointing this out is because I'm sure Trump's defense strategy will be to keep as much evidence as possible from being shown to the jury.  That will likely be the main challenge for prosecutors.  John Yoo seems to think the admissibility of a lot of the evidence could be challenged if Trump claims attorney-client privilege, because so much of the information in the indictment comes from Trump's lawyers.  Personally, I have serious doubts about that, because the basis of the communication between Trump and the lawyers does not appear to be conveying legal advice. But its difficult to say without having access to the entirety of their conversations. If the admissibility of key evidence ends up being questionable, then maybe we'll see some type of deal being negotiated.

Assuming Trump doesn't end up in prison, how does this impact his chances in the election?  I think its a mixed bag.

The MAGA faction of the Republican Party has bought into the narrative that Trump was selectively prosecuted for something that all ex presidents do.  They will doubtless continue to support him because they believe that prosecuting Trump was unfair.  They won't pause to consider what he actually did.

Some people who supported Trump before the indictment was unsealed will actually read the indictment and stop supporting him. Others might wait to see the outcome of the case.

Obviously, people who were already not supporting Trump will continue to not support him.

I don't know how a thinking person could read the accounts of Trump sharing classified information in private meetings (especially sharing military attack plans with a potential book writer) and believe that he has the judgment to be President.  If I were one of the other Republican candidates, that is something I would use as a talking point during the primaries.

Expect?  No. Like many rich people he's weaseled his way out of many situations by throwing lawyers at the problem. Reality Winner (with a much cheaper legal team) stole 1 document and got years in prison. Robert Hansen (with a much cheaper legal team) just died in prison. Jeffery Epstein got *work release* after all he did.  And was angry about it.

Please read the indictment--it's a compelling document and spells out exactly what Smith is going to work through during the trial.

Trump is a traitor.

I don't.