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Marc Baptiste
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 3655
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| Posted: 29 August 2020 at 7:38pm | IP Logged | 1
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Trump seems to be getting quite a bounce from the Republican National Convention. I have been doing a lot of reading from left to right and the consensus seems to be that Biden might need to come out of seclusion and actually campaign.
I also strongly disagree that Biden does not need to clearly state some big priorities or goals - first off JUST running against Trump was tried and failed by Hillary Clinton in 2016. And second if you think we are going to win by JUST running on the Coronavirus issue... get ready for the proverbial FOUR MORE YEARS.
Marc
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Jason Czeskleba
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Joined: 30 April 2004
Posts: 4620
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| Posted: 29 August 2020 at 10:18pm | IP Logged | 2
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Marc, there's only been one post-convention poll released so far that I'm aware of, a Morning Consult poll that showed Biden's lead decreasing to 50-44%. It's never a good idea to draw conclusions from one poll. I remember a couple weeks ago there was a CNN poll that showed Biden only ahead 50-46%, prompting headlines that the race had tightened. But polls over the next few days showed a notably larger margin, demonstrating that poll was an outlier. Unless/until we see a change in the average of polls, it's too soon to pronounce that there's been a significant convention bounce.
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Marc Baptiste
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 17 June 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 3655
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| Posted: 29 August 2020 at 10:22pm | IP Logged | 3
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Jason,
True. But, I'm not so much worried about "convention bounces" they are usually fleeting anyways. I am however getting a little worried about Biden's campaign strategies: stay secluded, run AGAINST Trump but FOR nothing else. Personally, I think that is a recipe for disaster.
Marc
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Kevin Brown
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8947
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| Posted: 30 August 2020 at 9:21pm | IP Logged | 4
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Yeah, the orange got a post convention bounce, BUT Biden is still polling at 50-51%. Something Hilary only did once throughout her campaign, and that was in July. Being "only" ahead and having 50% is damn good.
Let's see where things are at in a couple of weeks.
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Matt Reed
Byrne Robotics Security
Robotmod
Joined: 16 April 2004
Posts: 35940
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| Posted: 31 August 2020 at 1:11am | IP Logged | 5
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Fuck polling. Don't rely on it nor give it any more weight than it deserves which is, quite frankly, a snapshot of a single moment in time. I'm sure I'm not alone in learning the hard lesson of polling after 2016. In this election cycle I, personally, don't want to hear jackshit about who is polling where and at what numbers. Why. Just get out and vote.
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Michael Penn
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 12 April 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 12708
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| Posted: 31 August 2020 at 4:46am | IP Logged | 6
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If we start with the 2016 final electoral map, and switch only three states from Republican to Democrat -- namely, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin -- then Biden is victorious. Trump only very narrowly winning those states that had voted Dem. for decades was really the whole ballgame. If Biden stands a chance, he'd better have his ground game in full effect in those states.
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Michael Roberts
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Joined: 20 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 14857
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| Posted: 31 August 2020 at 6:35am | IP Logged | 7
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I'm sure I'm not alone in learning the hard lesson of polling after 2016.
-----
Let's not perpetuate the myth that 2016 was a failure of polling. It wasn't. The polls were as accurate as they usually are. The national polls reflected the popular vote. The state polls that favored Clinton also showed that her lead in many of those states were within the margin of error. The failure was not with the polls, but with the punditry ignoring the data showing that Trump was within a polling error of winning several states.
Being dismissive of data is how we get climate change deniers, anti-vaxxers, and plandemic conspiracists. Certainly be discerning and skeptical about the quality of any individual poll or the punditry's interpretation of those polls, but being completely dismissive of any polling is a dangerous road to travel down.
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Peter Hicks
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 30 April 2004
Location: Canada
Posts: 1968
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| Posted: 31 August 2020 at 8:30am | IP Logged | 8
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"If we start with the 2016 final electoral map, and switch only three states from Republican to Democrat -- namely, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin -- then Biden is victorious. "
***********************
THIS. This is the essential truth of this fall's election.
Has Trump done anything to win over voters who did not vote for him in 2016? No. But some Republicans who held their nose and voted for him have buyer's remorse. A lot of people who voted for Obama but who didn't bother to vote for Hillary have pledged to make the effort this time. Lots of people have lost their jobs because of the mishandling of COVID, and I don't think they will trust Trump to bring back their jobs.
So for those who fear Trump will win again, I agree he should not be under estimated. But looking at the math, and the path to victory under the electoral college, I don't see how he can pull it off.
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Eric Sofer
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 31 January 2014
Location: United States
Posts: 4789
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| Posted: 31 August 2020 at 8:55am | IP Logged | 9
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And to add a fork to the garbage disposal... here in Ohio*, I have seen what seems a bit of a switch from 45 to Mr. Biden. Now, I haven't driven all over, so I don't know the exact feel from here to Cincinnati, but I get the impression.
Of course, if Ohio swings to Biden, Trump is in big trouble as well; along with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, a swing here would mean a whole MESS of votes.
Not that I'd feel bad. I'd LOVE for Ohio to be the change that deposes President Murder!
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Kevin Brown
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Joined: 31 May 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 8947
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| Posted: 31 August 2020 at 11:02am | IP Logged | 10
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If we start with the 2016 final electoral map, and switch only three states from Republican to Democrat -- namely, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin -- then Biden is victorious
*******************************
Currently, and yeah I'll bring up the polling again, Biden leads in all of those states and not within the margin of error, too (6 or more in each).
Other states where Biden is currently showing to be in the lead and not within the margin of error (6+): NV, NM, and CO.
Current states that are too close to call: OH, FL, AZ, and NC.
Shockingly, TX has Biden within 4 points, just barely above the 3 point of margin of error.
This is going to be interesting IF people get out and vote.
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Charles Valderrama
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Joined: 16 April 2004
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| Posted: 31 August 2020 at 12:52pm | IP Logged | 11
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The upcoming debates will be crucial. Makes me nervous thinking about it.
-C!
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James Woodcock
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Joined: 21 September 2007
Location: United Kingdom
Posts: 7786
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| Posted: 31 August 2020 at 1:33pm | IP Logged | 12
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Biden’ s speech today seemed decent to me - measured, calm & not
full of hyperbole.
I’m not sure how many points you can score on the current economy
though. What’s the solution here? Economy closed, so it tanks. Trump
wants it open, but complain about it as the virus numbers are too high.
So Biden needs to pick one - crap economy numbers or opening too
early. You can’t attack both
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