QUOTE: In either case, any polling data should be taken with a huge grain of salt. How many people likely didn't bother voting in 2016 because the polls (along with the media pushing those polls) convinced them that Hillary Clinton would not only win but win in a landslide?

 

GAAAAAAAAAAAH!

Can we end the myth that 2016 represented some catastrophic failure of polling? It wasn’t. It was a tight race, and Trump overperformed in swing states WITHIN THE STANDARD POLLING ERROR. The issue wasn’t the polls; it was the quants who were attaching high probabilities to them. 

-----------------------------

Okay, well, right now Biden is leading Trump in important states by a smaller margin than Hilary was at the same time.  So the point they're making is valid in that there's no cause for overconfidence.

On the positive side, Biden is picking up a lot of ground with 65+ voters.  He's not picking up much of anything among younger Bernie supporters.  But 65+ folks actually turn out and vote a lot more than younger people.  Good news for Biden this year.  Bad news for the DNC's future. 

Telling folks to inject/ingest bleach to treat themselves is stupid and it show how much of an idiot he is.

Wonder how many attempts it took for someone to explain what `sarcastic' means to him?

*************************

Or killed you.

Regardless of where the data came from, we had numerous celebrities, media people, and people in government (including Obama himself) boldly proclaiming Trump would never be president. No chance. Nada. Hillary Clinton was going to be our next president and that was that! 

So whether we blame polling, media hype, or simply massive overconfidence, I fear history will repeat itself if we don't take things more seriously this time.

I'm not too confident in that either. When Bush started a war with Iraq that lingered far past his now-infamous 'mission accomplished' blunder, I thought for sure it would cost him his re-election. Instead, many felt it was unwise to "switch horses in mid-stream" and we got 4 more years of Bush. 

--------------------------------------------

This is somewhat different.  Trump's primary campaign response to criticism was set to be the economy.  Incumbents with a good economy tend to win elections.  Obviously, the economy is now in tatters and only getting worse.  The longer the damage continues and the less congress does about it, the deeper the hole gets.  I frankly think this is why the Democratic establishment isn't wanting to do more than they are.  They don't want to be perceived as obstructing aid, but they're also happy to have an easier path to reelection through further economic suffering on the part of voters.

So the election has now shifted from Trump crowing about the economy and Biden running on being less of an asshole to the two of them having to argue why they're the one to rebuild the economy and pull us out of the hole.  The perception that while some of the hole was unavoidable due to coronavirus, but another major portion is the result of Trump's bungling, makes that argument very hard for the Trump side.  That's why Biden is keeping his head down and the Democrats in congress are staying home.  Trump's drowning and taking the GOP down with him.  They're going to let him do it.

I'm not saying anyone should be overconfident.  Especially with Biden as the nominee.  Once focus shifts back to him this is going to get really ugly and he already has a sexual harassment accuser that most of the media has been ignoring/burying.  Once the Trump campaign unleashes on him and we see how he reacts, which is unpredictable, there's no way at this point to predict which way this election will go. 

Regardless of where the data came from, we had numerous celebrities, media people, and people in government (including Obama himself) boldly proclaiming Trump would never be president. No chance. Nada. Hillary Clinton was going to be our next president and that was that! 

So whether we blame polling, media hype, or simply massive overconfidence, I fear history will repeat itself if we don't take things more seriously this time.

------

Part of taking things more seriously this time is not buying into and spreading false narratives, like that the 2016 election represented some massive failure in polling. By doing so, you are just being complicit in Trump's attacks on the media.

In every single case, a true leader would lead by action. President Murder has not. He KNOWS what he has to lose!

I wonder if he thinks that people will follow his advice and thus murder the part of the population who won't vote for him? 'Cause he's got the wrong side that's going to follow him slavishly. He's murdering his worshipers, not the intelligent part of the populace.

According to Rex Tillerson, "He's a FUCKING Moron!"