Posted: 12 August 2008 at 5:58pm | IP Logged | 7
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Mexico, perhaps, but I don't think the Canadians have made frequent incursions across our northern border in apparent acts of aggression against less well-armed Border Patrol agents, unless there's something going on up there that we haven't been told about. Also, I doubt that Canada is a major route for the international drug cartels transporting illegal narcotics into the US and, therefore, doesn't have (at least beyond a very small part) the risk of corrupt political and military officials working in conjunction with the smugglers and gangs. Finally, I think the Mexicans are still feeling a little pain from their 19th Century loss in a war against the then-expansionist US and subsequent tensions raised by the cross-border conflicts raised by outlaws like Pancho Villa (a hero to some Mexicans and even a few US citizens who romanticize the archtype he inspired) and a loss of additional territory ceded to the states of Arizona and California to facilitate US infrastructure that would've had to cut its way through mountains further north.
We also have a large portion of Spanish-speaking migrants who're pressing for bilingualism and resisting calls for making English the official language of the US all for mostly nationalistic reasons (reactions to Anglo-Saxon prejudices against Hispanics notwithstanding), a source of tensions not too unlike the French Canadians who agitate for separation from or formal autonomy within the majority English Canadian territories. There are groups like La Raza ("the Race") who form a large part of this agitation, which seems to demand that public schools teach Spanish in addition to English (and not necessarily just as an elective course) and call for rights for illegal migrants (which causes tension with those migrants who actively and legally immigrate, even if they're doing so for seasonal employment within US borders)
In this, the situation which led to the conflict between Russia and Georgia has its similarities: you have an ethnic minority in the Ossetians who're more or less dominated by the neighboring countries and have become somewhat assimilated into Russian culture, to which the Russians feel obligated for support in order to secure their own border along the Caucasus Mountains, against which the Georgians are strongly opposed.
Georgia, perhaps feeling its oats (longstanding ethnic tensions building up, plus a history of armed conflict and often dictatorial rule -- Josef Stalin was a Georgian) took the fight to South Ossetian rebels within its own borders, to which the Russians reacted by sending an army in and bombing the hell out of Georgia until It wanted to give up the fight. Russia isn't stupid. Vladimir Putin and his successors (not necessarily men I would admire for their humanitarian aspects) saw the need to put their foot down. Hundreds of civilians died (this is war, remember) and Georgia is calling for a ceasefire.
I'll continue to watch the situation because, in addition to what it signals us as to how effectively (or not) we can affect matters in Russia's "near abroad", it might bear further watching as other former Soviet satellites have to be breaking out in a sweat at this. Ukraine has already made some grumblings about not letting the Russian Black Sea Fleet return to harbor at Svestapol and there is tensions over the Crimean Peninsula between the two countries (who was there first). East Bloc nations like Poland and the Czech Republic have also got to be feeling an itch.
At this point, given the limitations of Western power and the signs that there is a point at which we must stop to think twice about moving in on the sleepy old bear, a change in policy towards a more cautious diplomatic course might be wiser. However, if Russia goes all out and starts steamrolling neighbors and dragging them bloodied and crippled back into its control, I fear we may end up having to come to blows with them at some point, nuclear deterrent or no. My hope is that cooler heads will prevail and we get a sort of "Detenté: Don't Cross This Line" agreement between East and West instead of the Apocalyptic daydream that some seem inclined to wish for.
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