"How did all of those tanks get passed homeland security?"

LOL.

The fog of war is making it hard to understand exactly what is going on, but no doubt we'll know in a few days how well the initial Russian assault went.  Below are bullet points of pertinent information.

• Russia has not responded to Georgia's pleas for a cease fire and international mediation.  Putin has left Beijing and is now in North Ossetia next to the border with Georgia.
• Fighting continues in Tskhinvali.  Russia claims it has control, but there's evidence that Georgia has either retaken the town or is attempting to.  Tskhinvali occupies a strategically important spot and if held, could prevent any further Russian advance into Georgia.
• It is assumed Russia intends to take Tskhinvali and then continue south to cut Georgia in two.  Word is that Russia may not drive on the Georgian capital Tblisi because it might provoke a Western response - remember that Russia's excuse is to protect the South Ossetians from Georgia.
• Abkhazia, another breakaway region in Georgia, has asked UN observers to leave and have attacked Georgian troops in the Kodori Gorge.  If successful, they could attempt to seize Georgia's ports and cut off Georgia's access to the world.
• The Russian Black Sea Fleet has sent ships to blockade Georgia's ports.
• Reports indicate Russia is assembling more troops - elite paratroopers and Spetnatz special forces included.
• The Baltic states and Poland (all NATO members) have issued a joint statement condemning the Russia invasion.  Poland has offered any help Georgia may ask.  Poland's President, Lech Kaczynski, has stated, "We are not planning to send any troops there, but anything is possible."
• Georgia's 2000 troops in Iraq will be heading back to Georgia ASAP.

It is too early to determine how things will happen.  Russia will have the advantage in numbers, but Georgian troops are considered to be highly trained compared to regular Russian conscript troops (not necessarily any elite Russian forces).  They also have the advantage in supply lines, terrain, and knowing the territory.

In the short term, a Russian victory is not assured.  In the long run, Russia has lots more resources to pour into the fight even if the Georgians inittially win.  Much depends on how much diplomatic and other pressure is applied to Russia, and whether Russia can accept anything other than a decisive win.  Much of Putin's domestic support comes from the view that he has made Russia strong again.  Any semblance of defeat would likely cause a collapse of support for him.  I don't think he will tolerate any loss.  If Russia does not win quick, how much will he escalate the crisis?

Links for those who want to know more.

View from the New York Post

Current analysis as of August 9

Negotiations for a cease-fire while fighting over a disputed piece of territory are tricky. Georgia will want a cease-fire while they still maintain military control over parts of South Ossetia. Once Russia has driven all Georgian troops out of South Ossetia, they might be open to a cease-fire.

The problem is that South Ossetia has broken away from Georgia and by all accounts that's a majority decision. It's not Russia going in, saying they want the land. That might be their long-term plan, but right now, they're just standing up for a small country that has claimed independence.

The Baltic states are probably shaking in their boots, since the Russian minority in these countries are deeply mistrusted and in some cases even hated. If Russia starts using the "protecting Russians abroad" argument, they will have legitimate concerns.

There's a lot of bad blood left over from the Soviet Union and its collapse, and if that gets to be the driving force this could get really ugly. It all depends what game plan Putin is choosing.

The reports we get over here is that Georgia is asking for a ceasefire, Russia demands they withdraw from South Ossetia first, they say they're out, Russians and South Ossetians say they're not, the Georgians admit that no, they're not really out, but they're out enough.

Et cetera, et cetera.

South Ossetia declared itself independent aalmost 20 years ago and has already had 2 referendums on this, all perfectly democratic and on the up and up. They want to be reunited with North Ossetia, which is across the Russian border.

If anybody wants to paint Russia as the bad guy, I think they've picked the wrong conflict, because every move Russia has made has been covered by "we're helping our peacekeepers, we're supporting a democratic bid for independence" et cetera.

Not saying they're the good guy, but so far their ass seems to be well and truly covered.

   Last time I looked, headlines and tickers are saying that the Russians have taken out a Georgian ship and the Pope is calling for a ceasefire and negotiations.  That latter part would be funny, if it weren't so damned serious (this being a war, and all).  The best I can figure for the Pope is that he's obligated to say things like this.  It's not as if the Russians and Georgians (neither Catholic nor possibly even believing in God -- there being atheists in charge in some places) would pay attention, the threats of excommunication and such no longer bearing the weight they once used to (not my God, or there is no "God", means no consequences like being struck by ligthning, finding your soul burning in a molten lake, etc).

   Still, I'd keep my eye on the situation and remember that Russia is still Russia, remembering its history and everything which came with it.  Putin hasn't made it a secret what he thinks ought to happen under his watch.  At worst, this is the opening salvo for a greater push for Russia to rebuild its old empire, which it currently focusing on troublesome smaller neighbors but may escalate to include larger countries like the Ukraine.

   My question is what would happen if this spills over into Central Asia.  The Afghans have to be aware of this, knowing what happened no less than 20 years ago...