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James Woodcock
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Posted: 06 August 2019 at 2:19pm | IP Logged | 1 post reply

@ present, the default situation is that we leave on 31st October unless the U.K. ask for an extension. If there is no deal in place, then we would leave without a deal, Parliament does not get a vote on that.

If there is a vote of no confidence then either a new PM gets called in or we have a general election. BUT. We are in summer recess so no vote can be taken before September.

If Johnson calls an election, he could delay that to November, so we would leave before the election.
Current thinking is that it is now too late to stop a no deal Brexit
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Manali Sinha
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Posted: 07 August 2019 at 12:53am | IP Logged | 2 post reply

On January 23, 2013, British prime minister David Cameron first mentioned the brexit referendum.On January 4, 2015, British prime minister David Cameron said he would bring forward the planned referendum in 2017 if possible. on May 28, 2015, it was reported that the British government submitted and published the bill on "brexit referendum" to the house of Commons, including the statement on the referendum question, and promised to hold a vote before the end of 2017.On March 16, 2017, queen Elizabeth ii approved the brexit bill, authorizing British prime minister Theresa may to formally start the brexit process.

On June 26, 2018, the queen approved the brexit act, allowing the UK to leave the eu. on July 12, the UK released a white paper on brexit. on September 19, Theresa may published an article in the German media, saying that Britain and the European Union are close to reaching a "brexit" agreement. She hopes that the eu can show sincerity and determination like the UK and make concessions to avoid the situation of Britain leaving the eu without a deal. on November 25th the leaders of 27 eu countries, excluding Britain, unanimously approved a draft brexit agreement.on December 10th the European court of justice ruled that Britain could unilaterally reverse its decision to leave the eu.

On March 12, 2019, the British parliament voted again on the revised "brexit" agreement, but it still failed to pass.

On April 10, 2019, eu countries reached an agreement to postpone the date of "brexit" to October 31.

On April 12, 2019, former UK independence party leader farage announced the formation of brexit party.

Detailed info: https://docsbay.net/brexit

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Peter Martin
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Posted: 07 August 2019 at 6:41am | IP Logged | 3 post reply

The UK's Food and Drink Federation says that in the event of a no-deal Brexit there would be 'selective shortages' of food that would go on for 'weeks or months'.

Domino's Pizza has said it has spent £7m stockpiling supplies against the contingency of supply disruption.
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 07 August 2019 at 6:52am | IP Logged | 4 post reply

The most immediately disruptive thing about a No Deal exit, is that there will be no transition period. The UK would overnight switch to standard WTO terms and the ability to mitigate disruption in supply chains will not be in the hands of the UK government -- slight irony here in that the Brexiteers want to take back their sovereignty, but will now rely on the goodwill of border controls on the other side of the channel to maintain a frictionless flow of goods. Which I can't see happening.
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James Woodcock
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Posted: 07 August 2019 at 7:12am | IP Logged | 5 post reply

The timing is also crap.
In March, the warehouses would have been much less full as in October they would be gearing up for Christmas.

So I think we might be heading for food shortages around Christmas time.
What a way to celebrate becoming the Great British Empire again (said in my Londo Mollari voice)
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Steven Brake
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Posted: 07 August 2019 at 10:33am | IP Logged | 6 post reply

I'm usually sceptical about conspiracy theories, but it must be the case that there's more to Brexit than we're being told. Is it as much evidence of Russian machinations as (purportedly) the U.S election?

There were rumours of a long standing grudge held by Johnson over some humiliation that Cameron inflicted upon him during their Oxford days, but I've never heard anything more about this. It'd be incredible - and oddly, perhaps even worse than the thought that we've been duped by the Russkies! - to think that such a debacle has been the result of, essentially, a student row.
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 07 August 2019 at 11:39am | IP Logged | 7 post reply

This does not in any way come down to a spat between Johnson and Cameron.

The starting point was a streak of eurosceptism among a core of the Tory party that was allowed to fester and grow. That has been there for at least 20 years, I'd say, in some form or another. The advent of the euro as a currency in 1999 I think put fear into them that the UK might join the single currency and we would lose the pound. This eurosceptic attitude was likely emboldened by the trials and tribulations of the euro during the financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis in Greece and, to a lesser degree, Portugal, Ireland, Cyprus and Spain.

Cameron's capitulating to calls for a referendum was basically a desperate attempt to get a proper hold of the Tory party. It was, basically, a terrible gamble that backfired. The gains to be made from winning such a gamble offered some modest upside to him as PM, but no great upside for the UK. The downside for Cameron from losing the gamble was that he cut short his Prime Ministership, but potentially disastrous for the country economically (any Brexit would be damaging, but the most reckless and damaging form is inarguably with no-deal in place to manage the process).

It seems very unlikely that Russians cybertrolls did not undertake a similar approach to the referendum as they did to the US election. Two key votes influenced by a foreign rival, using technological methods whose impact only began to dawn on us long after the results were in.

Did the Russians stand to gain from a weakened eurozone and a major NATO power in disarray? Of course. Did they have the means to wage this kind of cyberwarfare? We know they did.

Boris is just an opportunist, who disappeared in the direct aftermath of the referendum when the country needed help navigating the unexpected outcome. Now the whole country is weary from the protracted negotiations, May having fallen on her sword after thanklessly banging her head day after day at the unassailable task, he re-appears to grab the wheel and steer the steamer over the waterfall.


Edited by Peter Martin on 07 August 2019 at 11:45am
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Steven Brake
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Posted: 07 August 2019 at 12:41pm | IP Logged | 8 post reply

@Peter:

No, I don't mean to suggest that Johnson created Euroscepticism - which has long existed in the UK, not just the Tory party - but it is possible that he's used it as a vehicle to settle some unspecified grudge with Cameron.
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Peter Martin
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Posted: 07 August 2019 at 5:47pm | IP Logged | 9 post reply

No, I really don't think so. I don't like Boris, but even he wouldn't be that bone-headed. I think he's misguided, but his motivations are likely much larger than settling a decades-old grudge. Furthermore, striking a deal with the EU or leaving with no-deal -- neither really sticks it to Cameron. If the UK leaves with no deal, and the economy dumps, how will that possibly make Cameron look bad, when he was the one who wanted to stay in the EU? And Boris is the one at the helm when the economic damage occurs?

Edited by Peter Martin on 07 August 2019 at 5:48pm
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James Woodcock
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Posted: 07 August 2019 at 11:25pm | IP Logged | 10 post reply

The Tories have been having an internal war over the EU for far longer than 20 years. It @ least dates back to the time of Margret Thatcher.
It started to really heat up during the early ‘90’s (John Major) where we had Maastricht & the Exchange Rate Mechanism (forerunner to the Euro) 
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Carlos Velasco
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Posted: 08 August 2019 at 12:54am | IP Logged | 11 post reply

It would be great if the USA could celebrate its own referendum... the TrumpExit.
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James Woodcock
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Posted: 28 August 2019 at 5:08am | IP Logged | 12 post reply

So it looks like we will have a suspension of Parliament so there will be no debate post summer recess. There will be a few days only to attempt to stop a no deal and I doubt they will be able to do anything in those few days.

If Johnson then calls an election as soon as they come back after the suspension, we end with no deal. This is not fun by any means.

A hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is a truly scary prospect. Even if we have frictionless trade border (and I have still to see any detail or proof that such technology exists), that would not work in preventing people with a visa to Ireland crossing the border to NI (and vice versa) - so we are back at a hard border.

Which means back to bombs
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