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Jason Czeskleba
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Posted: 16 October 2020 at 5:28pm | IP Logged | 1 post reply

Barring some major unforeseen change in circumstances, I don't think there is any conceivable way Trump will receive more votes than Biden.  If all the votes are counted, it also seems pretty unlikely that he will win the electoral college.  Unfortunately, it's also quite certain that all the votes cast will not be counted.  The election may well come down to how many votes Trump and his cronies are able to have thrown out via lawsuits. 
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Peter Hicks
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 6:24am | IP Logged | 2 post reply

Five thirty eight.com has now modelled Trumpís chances of winning at a new record low of 12%.  And as his White House chances fade, Democrat chances to control the Senate soar upwards, as a 50-50 Senate split is very possible.
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Doug Centers
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 8:08am | IP Logged | 3 post reply

This scares me! NO !!

I remember this guy from 2016, and scoffed at him like everybody else at the time. It seemed like he didn't even believe his own numbers at that time.

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Michael Roberts
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 9:30am | IP Logged | 4 post reply

I remember this guy from 2016, and scoffed at him like everybody else at the time. It seemed like he didn't even believe his own numbers at that time.

------

I'll point out several things:

- His model is based entirely on the performance of the candidate in the primaries, which is... odd.

- Despite the 25 out of 27 claim, the model was only used for prediction since 1996. Arguably his model is overfitting the data to be predictive of the previous years.

- Technically, he was wrong in 2016? His model was predictive of the general election. Clinton won the popular vote. His "correct prediction" was a fluke. He changed the model to predict the electoral college this year. Let's see how that goes.


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Kevin Brown
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 9:53am | IP Logged | 5 post reply

Current polling in battleground states:

Pennsylvania:  Biden up by 8 (53-45)
Florida:  Biden up by 3 (48-45, statistical dead heat)
Wisconsin:  Biden up by 11 (54-43)
Michigan:  Biden up by 8 (52-44)
North Carolina:  Biden up by 8 (53-45)
Nevada:  Biden up by 9 (54-45)
Georgia:  Biden up by 6 (52-46)
Iowa:  Biden down 1 (48-49, statistical dead heat)
Texas:  Biden down 4 (47-51, statistical dead heat)
Ohio:  Biden down 2 (48-50, statistical dead heat)

Even without winning the states that are considered a statistical dead heat where he's down, Biden is poised to win by a lot IF the polling is correct.  Polling this year vs 2016 is far different in how they're processed.  Plus, with the early voting, some of these number might actually be even stronger for Biden.

If Biden wins all those states I listed above where he's currently leading, he'll have an electoral college win of 338-200.  Hilary lost 304-227.  A Biden win by that much would definitely signify a resounding loss.
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Peter Hicks
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 11:04am | IP Logged | 6 post reply

538 gave Trump a 28% chance of winning the 2016 election on Election Day.  That is hardly an impossible outcome. Flip a coin 3 times, and Trump wins once.  But today we are at a point that Trump only wins once out of 8 coin tosses.

Kevinís state by state summary above shows Trumpís problem.   Biden only has to take back the three Great Lakes states that Trump won by less than 1% in 2016, and polls consistently give him a firm lead in those three states.  Meanwhile, Trumpís resources are stretched thin playing defence in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, states that Trump MUST win, but that would be just a nice bonus for Joe.
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Marc Baptiste
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 11:11am | IP Logged | 7 post reply

With all the X factors destined to come into play in the age of TRUMP you all are seriously discussing poll numbers??!?

Marc
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Matt Hawes
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 11:16am | IP Logged | 8 post reply

The article that Doug linked to in his post above, about the professor who predicts elections,  is from early July this year. A lot has happened since then, even things that professor says could change his prediction.


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Doug Centers
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 11:58am | IP Logged | 9 post reply

"...even things that professor says could change his prediction."

...

Then he needs to come out and change his prediction! Even just for my paranoid self. I'm not usually superstitious, but when it comes to the Trumpster winning, I need all the voodoo powers at work!

and as for the polls...
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Tim O Neill
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 12:00pm | IP Logged | 10 post reply


Kevin Brown: "Current polling in battleground states:"

****

What is your source for the polling numbers?

In this age of misinformation, I think it's better to just link your sources instead
of posts like this.

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Peter Martin
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 1:00pm | IP Logged | 11 post reply

I don't know about you, but Nate Silver's 1/8 possibility of a Trump win still worries me a little. Yes, that heavily favours Biden, but 12% is not tiny. Better odds than playing Russian roulette... But not that much better. And if you know me at all, you'll know that I really don't like playing Russian roulette -- even with a speciality 8-chambered gun :)
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Kevin Brown
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Posted: 17 October 2020 at 2:14pm | IP Logged | 12 post reply

What is your source for the polling numbers?

*********************

Most of it was from NBC News, using the data from SurveyMonkey/Axios from 09/18-10/15.  My guess is that's it's aggregate data.

Texas and Ohio was from RCP.
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