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Christopher Alan Miller
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 26 October 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 2787
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| Posted: 11 August 2008 at 6:20am | IP Logged | 1
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I'm not sure how much input Tom Clancy has in his video games so I'm not sure if he came up with this but this is from the Ghost Recon game published in 2001. Let's see Nostradamus top this.
"Here's the situation: We've been deployed at the request of the
Georgian government to help them deal with rebels on their Russian
border. Our area of operations will be the South Ossetian Autonomous
region -- 1500 square miles of small villages and rugged
backcountry. The Ossetians have been skirmishing with the Georgian
army for years, but lately the attacks have escalated to the verge
of all-out war. Washington thinks that the Russians have engineered
the current flare-up as an excuse to step in and annex the whole
region. Our job is to cut the legs out from under the revolution
before that can happen.
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Chris Hutton
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Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
Posts: 11667
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| Posted: 11 August 2008 at 12:44pm | IP Logged | 2
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I find it more than slightly amusing that George W. Bush & Dick "Eagle-Eye" Cheney are speaking out against this! Who can take these two warmongers seriously??
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Michael Retour
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Joined: 27 May 2006
Posts: 932
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| Posted: 11 August 2008 at 3:59pm | IP Logged | 3
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Chris,
You got it!
Both Bush and Cheney are totally impotent on this issue. Are they going to start a war with Russia? They'd lose that one. What do we use for troops? Know how many Russians were killed during WW II? They are tough. They have modernized their armed services.
Russia knows what it is doing and will not tolerate being surrounded by NATO. This is a test for the West because Georgia is one of Bush's big "successes", like Lebanon and if Bush does nothing except huff and puff Russia will have won more than replacing the Georgian president (and they were asked if this was their intent). The Russian ambassador replied that sometimes leaders of nations become "troublesome" and have to be replaced and I couldn't help but think of Saddam Hussein.
The West lost on this one.
After communism fell the West could push Russia around but not anymore.
It is more than ironic that Bush is giving his pal "Vlad" lectures.
I think Russia is the good guy and is acting in the right. Georgia doesn't have a chance in Hades of winning and in fact they could wake up tomorrow with a new president.
EDIT: MSNBC is reporting Russia has invaded Georgia and has split the country in half. See below...
"The Georgian army is retreating to defend the capital," the Georgian
government said in a statement, adding that it was "urgently seeking
international intervention to prevent the fall of Georgia.
Edited by Michael Retour on 11 August 2008 at 4:05pm
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Chris Durnell
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 26 February 2005
Location: United States
Posts: 1234
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| Posted: 11 August 2008 at 7:15pm | IP Logged | 4
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The latest news has Russian forces in the town of Gori, cutting the country in two and isolating the capital of Tblisi, and taking the port of Poti. The Georgians have been clearly defeated, and any hope of a military stalement is now over. At the most, the Georgians could hold up in Tblisi and force the Russians into a Chencyan style city battle, but in the end the Russians would still win.
The question is what will the Russians do once they win? Officially, they are still asking for Georgia to withdraw from South Ossetia and promise not to send in their military ever again as their condition for a ceasefire. But the Russians have clearly gone beyond this.
AP has quoted Putin, ""Of course, Saddam Hussein ought to have been hanged for destroying
several Shiite villages," Putin said in Moscow. "And the incumbent
Georgian leaders who razed ten Ossetian villages at once, who ran
elderly people and children with tanks, who burned civilian alive in
their sheds - these leaders must be taken under protection."
To my ears, Putin has announced a death sentence on Georgian President Saakashvili. If he falls into the Russians' hands, don't expect him to live.
The big question is at what point will the West say enough is enough. Everyone is clearly willing to let the Russians have their way in South Ossetia. And Georgian membership in NATO is clearly dead. But will the Russians seek to depose Saakashvili and put in their own puppet? Everything I've read indicates Europe will consider that as having gone too far, but will that matter to the Russians? In order to have diplomatic leverage, you need to ante up and show the Russians that you will militarily intervene to prevent that. I don't see that happening, and therefore I don't think the Russians will accept anything less than the subjugation of Georgia because they know we won't do anything about it.
Ukraine has told Russia that they won't let the Black Sea Fleet back to Sevastapol (where it has been based in the Ukraine) if it becomes involved in the conflict there. Russia quickly said it wouldn't, and indicated surprise at Ukraine's statement. The Sevastapol port has become an issue between Ukraine and Russia in recent months. Ukraine says whent he lease expires in 2017 the Russian navy needs to be gone. Russia is saying that at 2017, negotiations can begin to allow the fleet to stay longer. Yeah. In addition, prominent Russian politicians have called into question the Crimea belonging to Ukraine. All this points to Russia attempting to subvert Ukrainian sovereignty in the future.
The crisis facing the West now is not what happens to Georgia, but how to rescue the entire political situation in Eastern Europe. The Russians will attempt to reclaim their "near abroad" and reinstall pro-Russian governments over the coming years. Any response by the US and Europe will need to keep this in mind.
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Christopher Alan Miller
Byrne Robotics Member
Joined: 26 October 2006
Location: United States
Posts: 2787
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| Posted: 11 August 2008 at 7:41pm | IP Logged | 5
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There's no way the Russians didn't plan this. Their army has never been known for it's quick reaction time yet within hours of the first shots they were able to launch a major invasion. I'm betting they encouraged the South Ossetians to fire into Georgian territory or fired on it themselves hoping to provoke a Georgian response. The Georgians seems totally unprepared for a war, not what you would expect from an aggressor. Hopefully the other former Soviet states will learn from this and be prepared
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Sam Karns
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Joined: 26 December 2004
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Posts: 7624
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| Posted: 11 August 2008 at 7:56pm | IP Logged | 6
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This is not good... for anyone.
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Keith Elder
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Joined: 16 April 2004
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Posts: 1974
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| Posted: 11 August 2008 at 8:16pm | IP Logged | 7
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Michael wrote:
| Both Bush and Cheney are totally impotent on this issue. Are they
going to start a war with Russia? They'd lose that one. What do we
use for troops? Know how many Russians were killed during WW II? They
are tough. They have modernized their armed services. |
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Yes, we're pretty much impotent, but it has nothing at all to do with Bush or Cheney. We simply can't intervene in any significant way, nor can anybody in the West. As bad as this conflict is, nobody can really afford to go to Georgia's defense, militarily. It's not about the ability to fight Russia; it's about escalating the level of conflict.
I'm a bit skeptical about the quality of Russian troops, but they are probably better trained and equiped than the Georgians.
Michael wrote:
| Personally I believe that the certain powers in the West would like nothing better than to break up Russia and China into small, weak powers and this "little adventure" is part of that. |
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Well, of course; and not just 'certain powers', but pretty much any sane westerners should want that. It's a little off the wall to think this was planned by the West, though. Shattered empires can erupt into violence without much provocation.
I think the only thing the West can do is try to construct a set of economic and diplomatic incentives and disincentives, so that both sides can back out and save face as soon as possible.
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Chris Hutton
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Joined: 16 April 2004
Location: United States
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| Posted: 11 August 2008 at 9:09pm | IP Logged | 8
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The end times are coming.
Help us, Tom Cruise!
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Steve Horn
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Joined: 26 February 2008
Location: United States
Posts: 636
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| Posted: 11 August 2008 at 11:13pm | IP Logged | 9
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Russia is doing this because they know that their military is a joke. Even England and Israel are more powerful military forces. Not to mention China. Putin is trying to reform the old Soviet Union which Russia does not have the means of doing.
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Carmen Bernardo
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| Posted: 12 August 2008 at 5:23am | IP Logged | 10
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On the other hand, I wouldn't underestimate the Russians for anything. Even without their former satellite states, they've still got a pretty large chunk of Asia under their control. Let's not forget that they also have nukes; a very strong disincentive against direct military engagement in the midst of their "near abroad", much as is the case in confronting a rogue state like North Korea or even penetrating Pakistani borders in pursuit of retreating terrorist cells (Obama's rhetoric notwithstanding).
It seems now that it's clear that Georgia's cause is lost. Irregardless of what started it all, they weren't in any condition to fight off a Russian army better equipped and possibly even more motivated than they are (Russians have to be thinking of the glory days of the Soviet era and the empire which preceded it). Having Russophiles with similar motivations, the difficulties of geography (in addition to the aforementioned nuclear deterrent) and international reputation (although Russian leaders probably could care less about theirs) are also factors against direct intervention.
As Keith said, disintegrating empires are a source of instability that can have some world-shaking consequences. One has to consider the situation when Rome fell in the 5th Century AD: as soon as that happened, the western half of its empire was only nominally loyal to the remaining "Roman" emperor in the East (at Constantinople) but the migrant Germanic tribes which were invading the region continued their wars and slowly consolidated their power over various provinces until we got the embryonic states that would become modern Europe. Russia is pretty much in a similar situation, save that Putin seems determined to make an attempt to rebuild it (ala Justinian's reconquest of Italy and parts of the western Mediterranean coasts).
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Michael Ferrier
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Joined: 28 May 2004
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| Posted: 12 August 2008 at 6:40am | IP Logged | 11
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I haven't followed this as closely as I might like. I agree with those who feel this doesn't bode well.
But I'm curious,
With all this talk of the former Soviet Union, did any of the news outlets mention that Gori is the birthplace of Joseph Stalin?
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Kevin Brown
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| Posted: 12 August 2008 at 7:40am | IP Logged | 12
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Ray Brady wrote:
| Oh Criminy. How many Americans now believe that Russia just invaded the southern United States? |
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Unfortunately, I know of 3 people who seriously thought Russia did indeed invade the state of Georgia..... I thought they were kidding. I even commented to one by saying, "I didn't think the Braves were doing that badly in the standings." She said she didn't think it was because of baseball that the Russians were attacking the US.
I just stared at her. I really had no response.
How sad is that?
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Topic Closed)
